When’s the Next Recession? Will You Be Ready This Time?

Will we fall into another recession?  Absolutely.  Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?

 

Get an early handle on the potential for a major recession, consider the potential impacts on you, your career, your organization and respond sufficiently ahead of any expected economic downturn.

 

Source: Shaping Tomorrow’s AI Robot, Athena. 

Forecast: The Fed will tighten too much and tip that curve into recession territory sometime next year.

Trend: Economic, Political

Sector: Financial

Insight and Source: Economist who helped discover predictive powers of bond market says there’s no sign of recession right now   Ron Insana | @rinsana

 

Forecast: Developed countries are badly equipped for another recession, both economically and politically, and central banks should be wary of raising interest rates just to control inflation.

Trend: Economic, Political

Sector: Financial

Insight and Source: Summers Warns the Biggest Economies Are Not Prepared for Another Recession Christopher Condon , Joao Lima , and Paul Jackson

Forecast: Many economists now expect a mild recession in the U.S. by 2020 at the latest.

Trend: Economic, Political

Sector: Financial

Insight and Source: IDC Forecasts Worldwide IT and Telecom Spending to Slow After Last Year’s Rebound; Economic Risks Have Increased

Related Forecasts:

  • “The U.S. central bank forecast one or two more hikes for 2018.
  • Assuming no additional stimulus in 2020, the fading of the U.S. fiscal sugar-rush after 2018-2019 could lead to withdrawal symptoms that could exacerbate a cyclical slowdown.
  • The U.S. could target an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods, followed by another $300 billion – bringing duties on a total of $550 billion Chinese products, which is more than the $506 billion the U.S. imported from China in 2017
  • In the US, headline inflation is projected by the IMF to increase to 2.5% from 2.1%.
  • The IEA predicts the U.S. will add 1.7 million barrels per day in 2018, followed by another 1.2 mb/d in 2019.
  • Being well overdue for a recession in the US, the unbridled optimism of global investors will eventually end, once they consider the plethora of rising risks.
  • Achieving policy objectives will become more challenging from 2020 amid a technical recession in the US and a faster deceleration in Chinese economic growth rates.
  • In the next three years, a rising amount of bonds maturing within one year entails rollover risk if financial conditions tighten abruptly.
  • A recession in the US will cause economic growth in Canada to slow to a little above 1% in 2020.
  • The risk of a recession really picks up after a year, or sometime in 2020 because that is when you start to see the fiscal stimulus start to fade.
  • One change from recent years is that corporate car rental prices in North America are expected to rise by as much as 5 percent in 2018 due to operator issues.
  • The US stock market is on the brink of an imminent crash that could trigger another global recession.
  • Borrowing costs climb to a four-year high just as investors begin to anticipate a downturn in the global economy.
  • US rate hikes risk triggering a recession in 2019 or 2020 by putting the brakes on growth.
  • With unemployment at 4.1%, inflation fears are rising: Typically, the Federal Reserve starts to increase interest rates to slow the economy and push inflation back into its lair – but in doing so, the Fed raises the risk of recession and pushing down already lofty stock markets.”

Steps:

6)   Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.

7)   Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.

17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year timeframes.  Will we fall into another recession?  Absolutely.  Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?

8 Forecasts to Help You Stay Ahead of the Curve

By 2018, organizations investing in IoT-based cognitive situational awareness or operational sensing will witness improvements of up to 30% in critical process cycle times.

Through 2020, a lack of data science professionals will prevent 75% of organizations from achieving the full potential of IoT.

 

Most Recent Forecasts (of 269,648) Tracked by “Shaping Tomorrow’s” AI robot, Athena, and sorted by PESTLE Categories – Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Lifestyle and Environmental.

Forecast: Global renewable energy prices will be competitive with fossil fuels by 2019 or 2020.

Solar panels reflecting the sun. 3D render with HDRI lighting and raytraced textures.

Trend: Environmental 

Sector: Energy

Insight and Source: “The Twin Revolutions of Clean Energy & AI will conflate as investment and innovation cut the cost of renewable energy, the sector is set to boom” by Dr. Nasser Saidi

Related Forecasts:

  • “Renewable energy will continue to grow more rapidly than fossil fuels over the next two decades.
  • The United States will endeavor to work closely with other countries to help them access and use fossil fuels more cleanly and efficiently and help deploy renewable and other clean energy sources.
  • Renewable transport fuels of non-biological origin, waste-based fossil fuels and renewable electricity will have to be at least 1.5% in 2021.
  • Renewables will be cost competitive with fossil fuels by 2020, but long-term targets could drive demand further and accelerate cost declines.
  • Fossil fuels will remain a key element of the global energy mix over the coming decades but marginal growth is already coming from an increasing array of renewable technologies.”

Forecast: VMware estimates 50% of operations will be cloud-based by 2021.

Trend: Technology 

Sector: Cloud

Insight and Source: “VMware: Decades of hybrid cloud ahead” Antony Adshead Storage Editor

  • VMware estimates 50% of operations will be cloud-based – public and private – by 2021.
  • By 2030 the public cloud will achieve tipping point.
  • Gelsinger said VMware calculations indicate a 19%/52%/29% split between traditional, public and private cloud in that year.
  • Gelsinger said we face, “the biggest transformation in the history of IT” as businesses embark on digital transformation.
  • That may be the case, but by those calculations it’s going to take almost a decade and a half to just about reach halfway.
  • So, another way of reading VMware’s vision as explained at VMworld is that the transformation to the cloud will actually be very long and drawn-out and that for the foreseeable future – probably two decades, even by VMware’s projections – the most mission-critical workloads, such as financial transactions, will not be ready for the off-prem cloud.”

Forecast: 90 percent of organizations will adopt hybrid strategies by 2020.

Trend: Organizations, Technology 

Sector: Cybersecurity, Digital Transformation

Insight and Source: “Cylance® Extends AI-Driven Security to Hybrid Environments and Private Networks With CylanceHYBRID and CylanceON-PREM

Related Forecasts:

  • “By 2018, organizations investing in IoT-based cognitive situational awareness or operational sensing will witness improvements of up to 30% in critical process cycle times.
  • By 2018, more than 25% of Fortune 500 companies will have deployed IT-supported Google Chromebooks across their organizations.
  • By 2021, 50% of large organizations will have integrated disparate business and IT PMOs into enterprise EPMO hubs to enable digital transformation.
  • Fifty-three percent of organizations have already started their RPA journeys that’s expected to increase to 72 percent in the next two years.
  • In Europe the number of data scientists required by organisations by 2020 is expected to be 346,000.”

Forecast: By 2018, organizations investing in IoT-based cognitive situational awareness or operational sensing will witness improvements of up to 30% in critical process cycle times.

Trend: Technology, Internet Of Things

Sector: Information Technology

Insight and Source: “Digital twins help to reshape manufacturing“. by Ashok Kumar

Related Forecasts:

  • “IoT and AI-are expected to have the largest impact on TMT organizations over the next five years.
  • Organizations are predicted to spend US$1.5 billion on IoT security in 2018.
  • Gartner calculates that organizations will spend $1.5 billion on IoT security products and services in 2018.
  • Professional services will account for $946 million of the $1.5 billion in total that organizations will spend on IoT security this year.
  • Through 2020, a lack of data science professionals will prevent 75% of organizations from achieving the full potential of IoT.”

Forecast: In 2017, Roche’s orphan drugs market share accounted for 8.2 percent of the world’s market and is expected to decrease down to 5.2 percent by 2024.

Trend: Healthcare

Sector: Pharmaceuticals

Insight and Source: “Top 20 pharmaceutical companies worldwide by orphan drug revenue market share in 2024 compared to 2017

Related Forecasts:

  • “The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) will require Medicare Part D prescription drug plans to implement a seven-day initial prescribing limit beginning in 2019.
  • Yuana Yuana, PhD, in the Department of Biomedical Technology at the University Medical Center Utrecht (The Netherlands) will study Drug delivery strategies using drug-loaded extracellular vesicles generated by microbubble-assisted ultrasound.
  • There is widespread speculation that the Amazon joint venture will attempt to cut out the “middle man” in the US drug prescription and reimbursement system.
  • The FDA should remove Takeda’s gout drug Uloric (febuxostat) from the U.S. market after findings released this March show significant deadly heart risks.
  • The Global Orphan Drug market is estimated at $145.89 million in 2016 and is expected to reach $265.63 million by 2022 growing at a CAGR of 10.5% from 2016 to 2022.”

Forecast: Self-driving cars could save $325 bn by 2020 by avoiding accidents and reducing fuel costs.

Trend: Political, Technical

Sector: Automotive, Autonomous Vehicles

Insight and Source: “Driverless cars: Let technology take the wheel

Related Forecasts:

  • “Coal severance taxes are expected to decline an additional 5.2 percent in FY 2018-19 to $3.6 million and 5.8 percent to $3.4 million in FY 2019-20 as the demand for coal as a fuel for electricity production declines.
  • Fuel tax collections in Colorado are expected to grow 1.6 percent and reach $639.3 million.
  • Sustainable biofuels could provide 27 percent of the world’s total transport fuel by 2050 and avoid around 2.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year.
  • The Trump administration’s decision to weaken fuel efficiency standards could have “serious consequences” for Colorado’s effort to meet its clean energy goals by increasing carbon dioxide emissions from the state’s vehicle fleet by about 1.9 million tons a year by 2030.
  • Weakening fuel oil prices as a result of IMO 2020 could see oil competing again in power generation.”

Forecast: Grouping and infectious disease screening market is projected to reach US$ 7,078.3 Mn by 2026 from US$ 3,079.8 Mn in 2017.

Trend: Healthcare

Sector: Healthcare, Disease

Insight and Source: “Global Blood Typing, Grouping and Infectious Disease Screening Market 2016-2018 & 2026” PRNewswire 

Related Forecasts:

  • “A4NH researchers from LSHTM are working with colleagues from Africa Rice and others to explore how rice intensification can be achieved without increasing the risk of disease.
  • Advances and research in congenital heart disease and significant research funding for various projects are creating enormous opportunities for the global congenital heart disease market in coming years.
  • Environmental groups said they support the NDP’s criticism of open-pen fish farms and a new requirement for Aboriginal consent, but the 2022 deadline is too far off and threatens to further endanger coastal salmon with the risk of disease.
  • The global Polycystic Kidney Disease Treatment market is valued at million US$ in 2017 and will reach million US$ by the end of 2025.
  • The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the health of millions could be threatened by increases in malaria, water-borne disease and malnutrition.”

Forecast: The global edge computing market is expected to reach$ 20,495.24 million by 2026 from$ 7,983.61 million in 2017 at a CAGR of 11%.

Trend: Technology

Sector: Information Technology

Insight and Source: “HPE to Invest $4 Billion for Advancement of Edge Computing“.Zacks Equity Research.

Related Forecasts:

  • A substantial portion of the estimated 46 billion industrial and enterprise devices connected in 2023 will rely on edge computing.
  • More than 20% of global enterprises will have deployed serverless computing technologies by 2020.
  • Yale’s next wave of quantum computing research will get a boost from a $16 million grant from the U.S. Army Research Office.
  • Global Cloud Computing market size was 36700 million US$ and it is expected to reach 285300 million US$ by the end of 2025.
  • Cloud computing spending is expected to grow at a whopping rate of 6 x the rate of IT spending through 2020 and it is found to be growing at 4.5 times the rate of IT spending since 2009.

Steps:

6)   Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.

7)   Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.

17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year timeframes.  Will we fall into another recession?  Absolutely.  Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?

19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.

What Does It Take to Capitalize on Digital Transformations?

Businesses are changing right before our eyes as the digital transformation takes place around the world.

 

Technology- and data-based transformation has arrived in full force. And if you think that your company or industry is immune, think again.

 

Robots Might Not Take Your Job—But They Will Probably Make It Boring

“For many support workers, robotic surgery is much less satisfying than open surgery. There’s a huge amount of solitary setup work to allow the robot to work, then there’s a big sprint to get the robot draped and docked to the patient. And then…everyone watches the procedure on TV. While the surgeon is operating via an immersive 3-D control console, the scrub folds his arms and waits. The nurse sits in the corner at a PC entering data, or sometimes checking email or Facebook. There’s not a lot to do, but you always have to be ready. Compared to open surgery, it’s clean, safe, and dull work.” www.wired.com/story/robots- Matt Beane ROBERT DEYRAIL/GETTY IMAGES

AI cancer detectors

“Researchers suggest artificial intelligence is now better and faster at detecting cancer than clinicians. Squamous carcinoma. An AI system distinguishes dangerous skin lesions from benign ones. More accurate than dermatologists. An AI system developed by a team from Germany, France and the US can diagnose skin cancer more accurately than dermatologists. In the study, the software was able to accurately detect cancer in 95% of images of cancerous moles and benign spots, whereas a team of 58 dermatologists was accurate 87% of the time.” theguardian.com/technology/    Steve Gschmeissner/Getty Images/Science P

5 Leadership Traits Required For Digital Transformation Success

“Businesses are changing right before our eyes as the digital transformation takes place around the world. And yet many dinosaur leaders, as I like to call them, are still in these businesses risking extinction if they can’t adapt to this ever-changing environment. It’s true that leaders must be willing to accept change in order to remain competitive. However, I believe it goes even further than that. Change-agile leaders must be forward-thinkers who believe that the future is important above all else. They must be able to change quickly and fluctuate as the business world changes – sometimes on the daily. 1. Change-Agile Leaders Have Clear Purpose  2. Forward-Thinking Opportunists 3.They Fix What’s Broken 4. Risk-Takers and Experimenters 5. They Strive for Partnership.” forbes.com Daniel Newman Shutterstock

The Right Way to Try to Predict the Future

“If, for instance, a company has a product development cycle of 18 months, then it should look at least 24 months to 36 months into the future.  Why?  Because we know that if it spots any emerging trend or opportunity that may emerge in less than 18 months, it probably won’t be able to respond (since its own product development cycle is 18 months long).  With this in mind we can say that if you are doing trend spotting or future forecasting, you should look at a future from 1.5 to 2 times your product development cycle. There are caveats to this of course.  In an industry with aggressive competition and shrinking product development and product life cycles, you may want to look further out to skip generations.  In other, longer life cycle industries you may want to consider the life expectancy of your product.” inc.com/jeffrey-phillips  Jeffrey Phillips Getty Images

Competing in the age of disruption

”Technology- and data-based transformation has arrived in full force. And if you think that your company or industry is immune, think again. Only twelve percent of the Fortune 500 companies who were in business in 1955 are still around. Before stepping down as CEO of Cisco Systems in June of 2015, John Chambers spoke at a conference and bluntly told attendees, “40 percent of businesses …unfortunately, will not exist in a meaningful way in 10 years. If I’m not making you sweat, I should be. In an era of constant disruption and economic volatility, more and more companies are being forced to confront the reality of diminishing profits, stagnating growth and organizational uncertainty. Regaining the agility to compete comes down to more than simply cutting costs. It’s about embracing new ways to drive cost-consciousness and transparency, identifying mispent (sic) resources in order to unlock new sources of revenue and growth, and creating an operating model that can deliver on business strategy while supporting a culture of continuous transformation.” partneredcontent.fortune.com/accenture/arc-of-agility/ Paid Content from Accenture Strategy . The Foundry. Meredith Corp.

Turo, The Airbnb Of Car Rental Companies, Offers Corvettes, Ferraris, Teslas

“Turo has a stable of owners who want to rent out their vehicles. Then there are people like me who want to try different makes of cars. Based in San Francisco, Turo makes its money on the margin between what the car owner charges it and what the rental customer is willing to pay, less its costs for insurance, overhead, etc. The company has been around since 2009, but under a different name, RelayRides. It was rebranded in 2015, and has grown exponentially. Turo is now in 49 states (not New York, for insurance reasons) and has about six million customers and 250,000 cars up for rent, according to a company spokeswoman. Satellite operations are now in 56 countries. Once I installed the Turo app on my iPhone and signed up for the service, I put in the dates that I wanted my Corvette, and where I wanted to pick it up.” forbes.com Jim Clash One of Turo’s Corvettes for rent.

How Cloud Can Boost Innovation

“Hosting applications on cloud platforms is becoming increasingly common, if not an enterprise standard. Among the potential benefits are rapid scalability and elasticity—enabling systems to grow with changing business demands while minimizing costs—as well as on-demand availability, providing agility and faster deployment. Such benefits can be particularly valuable for innovation, which may help explain why cloud computing is growing so quickly. Worldwide, public cloud services revenue is expected to reach $411 billion by 2020, up from $306 billion this year. Any time spent on capacity planning, procurement, or waiting for requested infrastructure means less time spent finding solutions to problems and delivering value to the business, says Ragu Gurumurthy, principal and chief innovation officer with Deloitte Consulting LLP. “Every business needs to be digital to survive,” Gurumurthy says. “The cloud offers increased agility and speed to market as well as lower costs and access to cloud-native technologies.” http://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/ Sponsored Content. CIO Insights and Analysis from Deloitte

MIT’s new tech turns power plants and data centers into water sources

“A typical 600-megawatt power plant used at half capacity to handle peak power demand uses as much water as 100,000 people would in a year. Cooling towers at power plants use massive amounts of water–in the U.S., around a trillion gallons a year–to cool down high-temperature steam. Right now, much of that water is just goes back into the atmosphere as plumes of vapor. Varanasi estimates at a 600-megawatt plant, the new technology could save 150 million gallons of water per year.For power plants, or other buildings with cooling towers, using the new equipment could save millions on water bills, in some cases. Industry could reuse the captured water directly. But because the cooling towers create distilled water, it could also be treated further and used for drinking water. “If you install a cooling tower, it’s like doing desalination,” says Varanasi, who estimates that the technology could offset the need for building 70% of new desalination plants in the next decade.” fastcompany.com  · By Adele Peters

Who Knew Blockchain Could Make Government This Easy? This Italian CIO, That’s Who.

“With blockchain technology, South Tyrol can create a chain of certification that authenticates and maintains people’s data indefinitely — instead of having to verify every instance of someone’s data each time a citizen enters their personal information. Moreover, Gasslitter believes blockchain can act as an integration layer to help simplify the province administration’s IT landscape. He says, “We have more than 1,000 different software applications to store and use citizens’ data. Every agency is like a small kingdom and doesn’t share data. Our goal is to simplify processes and increase transparency. We’re creating a model of data sharing within South Tyrol that we hope can be scaled across Italy.” medium.com/sap-innovation-spotlight/ robin_meyerhoff 

Steps:

6)   Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.

7)   Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.

17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year timeframes.  Will we fall into another recession?  Absolutely.  Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?

19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.

Open Innovation, Crowdsourcing Platforms and Disruptive Technologies

The better the Stitch Fix stylists—human and machines—are at providing their customers with products they will love, the better their business runs.

 

“Here are just 10 of the inevitable changes that are coming over the next 30 years:

 

Where can you get find out about 1,300 of the newest technologies? How is fashion retail adopting AI? Why is open innovation an epic fail in science? What is one expert calling the biggest social and technical shift of the last 100 years? Or how do you separate fact from block chain fiction? And, which are the top 10 big data analytics tools you should consider?

Want To Know What Technologies Are Coming In The Future? There’s a Database For That

“Spider silk transformed into fiber for tissue reconstruction; paper that conducts electricity; renewable diesel fuel; and new techniques for regenerating aging or diseased skin. These are just a handful of examples from a new database of over 1,300 new technologies currently making their way through Israeli Technology Transfer Organizations [TTOs] associated with universities, research institutes, and medical institutions. The new searchable database is designed as a layer in Start-Up Nation Finder, a free-to-use innovation discovery platform from Start-Up Nation Central (SNC), an Israeli non-profit that connects businesses, governments, and organizations around the world to Israeli innovation.” forbes.com Amir Mizroch Shutterstock. A look into the future of Israeli innovation.

Stitch Fix: The Amazing Use Case Of Using Artificial Intelligence In Fashion Retail

“Stitch Fix has combined the expertise of personal stylists with the insight and efficiency of artificial intelligence to analyze data on style trends, body measurements, customer feedback and preferences to arm the human stylists with a culled down version of possible recommendations. This helps the company provide its customers with personalized style recommendations that fit their lifestyle and budgets. The better the Stitch Fix stylists—human and machines—are at providing their customers with products they will love, the better their business runs. As they invest in merchandise they know their customers will love, the less they waste on warehouse space, return costs and donating items that weren’t sold.” www.forbes.com  by Bernard Marr , Adobe Stock

Why Do Open Innovation Efforts Fail? Scientists Want to Solve Problems Themselves.

“It took us months to realize what was going on here: The most resistant scientists and engineers saw open source methods as a fundamental challenge to their professional identities. They defined themselves as “problem solvers,” but open innovation crowdsourcing platforms didn’t let them play that role; instead, they had to frame problems for someone else to solve. “I’ve always been attracted to places that allow you to be able to think and solve greater problems,” one scientist told us, “If I can’t do it at NASA, what is keeping me from going somewhere else?” By contrast, there were other scientists and engineers who perceived the open methods as an opportunity to enhance their role and capabilities. As some engineers described it, this transition was a shift from thinking “the lab is my world” to “the world is my lab.” They argued for the need to let go of the “how” of their work and refocus on the bigger “why.” They called on their colleagues to shift their professional identities from “problem solvers” to “solution seekers.”  hbr.org  by Hila Lifshitz-AssafMichael L. TushmanKarim R. Lakhani DON FARRALL/GETTY IMAGES

This May Be The Biggest Economic And Social Shift Of The Last 100 Years. Are You Ready?

“Here are just 10 of the inevitable changes that are coming over the next 30 years:

  1. Insurance companies will need to adjust models for insuring human-driven vehicles, making car ownership a financial luxury for individual owners.
  2. The role of the automobile as a form of transportation from point A to point B will be transformed into a form of entertainment and socialization creating a new platform for the delivery of content and media. You will basically be living inside of your smartphone!
  3. Autos will function as platforms for socialization in which people connect and gather. Some will be mobile conference and meeting rooms, others mobile restaurants and clinics. Commute time will cease to exist and along with it untold hours of lost productivity. Could this be the Drive-In of the 21st Century?
  4. The AV will finally allow the decongestion of urban city centers, which are today littered with automobiles that occupy valuable land. For example, in the typical large city 50 percent of the land area is dedicated to roadways and parking. Urban and rural areas will see a resurgence of activity as commute time becomes a non-issue.
  5. If projected out to 2050 we may save over one trillion dollars in the US alone since the cost of motor-vehicle deaths, injuries, and property damage in 2016 was $432 billion in the US alone, according to the National Safety Council.
  6. Deaths due to vehicular accidents will be reduced globally by over 1,000,000 lives yearly.
  7. The evolution of EVs and AVs will vary significantly from geography to geography and country to country. While commercial autonomous vehicles will likely develop quickly in developed countries such as the USA, individual non-ownership-based AVs are likely to take longer. Non-intuitively, the inverse is true of developing countries, such as India and China, which will have a higher economic incentive and regulatory latitude to move to AVs.
  8. There will be widespread employment disruption within developed countries that rely heavily on both the manufacture of owner-driven vehicles. Dealerships will disappear entirely.
  9. Lending for auto loans will shift dramatically from human owners to vehicles that own themselves.
  10. And lastly, let’s not forget the impact of vehicles on the planet. According to a study by NASA, vehicles are the single largest contributor to climate change.” inc.com By Thomas Koulopoulos  Founder, Delphi Group

187 Things the Blockchain Is Supposed to Fix

“But in this moment, few business trends can compete with the magic of blockchain technology. Blockchains, which use advanced cryptography to store information across networks of computers, could eliminate the need for trusted third parties, like banks, in transactions, legal agreements, and other contracts. The most ardent blockchain-heads believe it has the power to reshape the global financial system, and possibly even the internet as we know it. Now, as the technology expands from a fringe hacker toy to legitimate business applications, opportunists have flooded the field. Some of the seekers are mercenaries pitching shady or fraudulent tokens, others are businesses looking to cash in on a hot trend, and still others are true believers in the revolutionary and disruptive powers of distributed networks.” wired.com By Erin Griffith. Graphic:ALYSSA FOOTE

Top 10 Big Data Analytics Tools For Successful Data Analytics Developers

“Earlier, entrepreneurs used to call data analysis “business intelligence,” which perfectly characterizes the essence because data could provide a competitive advantage to those who used and interpreted them properly. Nowadays, a new term for referring to business intelligence was coined: “big data.” This name also makes a good sense because since the times of “business intelligence” the volumes of data became incredibly large. As the result, more effort should be applied to deal with them and make it useful for analytics professionals.” 1. Cassandra  2. Hadoop 3. Plotly 4. Bokeh 5. Neo4j 6. Cloudera 7. OpenRefine 8. Storm 9. Wolfram Alpha 10. Rapidminer    http://tecmatters.com by SYED

Steps:

(3) Pick options designed to attract better opportunities.  You don’t want to miss out on lucrative jobs or entrepreneurial ventures that will fuel  a real change in your lifestyle.

(5) Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.

(7) Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing and the Future of Work

It will likely take a decade or so until some AI technologies become the norm.

Enterprise teams are content to chew through budgets on the wrong things because they worry they won’t receive the same monies the next year if they don’t.

 

3 Signs Your Innovation Budget Needs a New Approach.

Entrepreneurs and investors operate leanly. They know big-bang innovation rarely ever works. Instead, they take small, smart steps toward a solution without worrying about nitty-gritty features. In contrast, enterprise teams are content to chew through budgets on the wrong things because they worry they won’t receive the same monies the next year if they don’t. Talk about wasteful!  See your product or service from a scrappy, entrepreneurial viewpoint. Don’t waste time on that obscure API or flashy layout. If users want it, they’ll tell you during the prototyping phase. Spend where your product provides value, and innovation will follow. Far too many firms don’t connect the dots between their budgetary input and innovation output. It’s not as simple as spending more money. The truth is, it’s about agile planning, frequent failure, and regular reallocation of resources. The sooner your innovation budget accounts for those things, the better your balance sheet will look.”  BUSINESS.COM Emerson Taymor Image credit: lOvE lOvE/Shutterstock

Why Innovation Tends to Bypass Economics.

Many of these problems can be traced back to a basic economic distinction: the difference between invention and innovation. Invention is defined as the discovery of a new exciting idea, product or approach. Innovation means applying that idea through changes in operating models and mindsets. Too many areas today contain the invention but not the innovation. This harmful decoupling is driven by a combination of biases,  blind spots and inertia (knowing you need to do something different but ending up doing more of the same). In too many cases, the flaw has less to do with the need to come up with a brilliant idea, and more a matter of embracing it and adapting accordingly. That requires being curious, open-minded, willing to listen, open to experimentation, creating safe zones for candid discussions and learning from failure. Economics has persistently failed to address this fundamental — and solvable — problem. The gaps between inventions and innovations have led to too many foregone welfare-enhancing opportunities for individuals, companies, governments and society.” newsmax.com Mohamed El-Erian Bloomberg View One Photo | Dreamstime.com

This Is How to Get Started With AI When the Only Thing You Know Is the Acronym.

Autonomous AI, however, is capable of learning certain tasks that require complex decisions to be made. Autonomous AI often receives the most attention because it makes innovations like self-driving cars possible, but at least in the short term, the business world might have more use for AI’s organizational and triage capabilities. Whatever you choose to do with AI, don’t delay. “AI is going to revolutionize the world more than any other tech advancement of the past 30 years,” Mark Cuban remarked at the recent Upfront Summit in Los Angeles. Like the internet, AI will produce a rich-get-richer environment, and those who get a head start are going to run the table.” So far, the following areas of AI show particular business promise: 1. Predictive analytics. 2. Computer vision. 3. Natural language processing.entrepreneur.com Sourav Dey Image credit: Photographer is my life | Getty Images

AI and the Future of Work.

It will likely take a decade or so until some AI technologies become the norm. While that provides plenty of lead time for the transition, few companies are taking action now to train their workers. Another little-noticed problem is that the AI systems themselves are being created with data and algorithms that don’t reflect the diverse American society. Accenture research shows business leaders don’t think that their workers are ready for AI. But only 3% of those leaders were reinvesting in training. At a Davos meeting held by Accenture, Fei-Fei Li, an associate professor at Stanford University and director of the school’s AI lab, suggested using AI to retrain workers. “I think there’s a really exciting possibility that machine learning itself would help us to learn in more effective ways and to re-skill workers in more effective ways,” she said. ‘And I personally would like to see more investment and thought going into that aspect.‘” wired.com/wiredinsider/  WIRED Brand Lab for Accenture. GETTY IMAGES

A Simple Tool to Start Making Decisions with the Help of AI.

Clarifying these seven factors for each critical decision throughout your organization will help you get started on identifying opportunities for AIs to either reduce costs or enhance performance. Here we discussed a decision associated with a specific situation. To get started with AI, your challenge is to identify the key decisions in your organization where the outcome hinges on uncertainty. Filling out the AI Canvas won’t tell you whether you should make your own AI or buy one from a vendor, but it will help you clarify what the AI will contribute (the prediction), how it will interface with humans (judgment), how it will be used to influence decisions (action), how you will measure success (outcome), and the types of data that will be required to train, operate, and improve the AI.hbr.org Ajay AgrawalJoshua GansAvi Goldfarb MARTIN HOLSTE/EYEEM/ GETTY IMAGES

Physicists Just Discovered an Entirely New Type of Superconductivity: No one thought this was possible in solid materials.

One of the ultimate goals of modern physics is to unlock the power of superconductivity, where electricity flows with zero resistance at room temperature. What they found was odd – as the material warmed up from absolute zero, the amount that a magnetic field could penetrate the material increased linearly instead of exponentially, which is what is normally seen with superconductors. After running a series of measurements and calculations, the researched concluded that the best explanation for what was going on was that the electrons must have been disguised as particles with higher spin – something that wasn’t even considered as a possibility for a superconductor before. While this new type of superconductivity still requires incredibly cold temperatures for now, the discovery gives the entire field a whole new direction.sciencealert.com FIONA MACDONALD (Emily Edwards, University of Maryland)

Australian Scientists Just Solved One Of The Biggest Quantum Computing Challenges Using Material Found In DVDs.

In quantum technology, information is carried on quibits, single photons. For the quibits to be actually useful in quantum technologies, though, they need to be produced by Single Photon Emitters that work at room temperature (it’s just practical, really) and at telecom wavelength (the most efficient way to transfer information via optical fibres) all at once. It wasn’t easy, but they’ve done it. Those plucky Australian Scientists have gone and done it. And they did it using a material found in DVDs.” www.gizmodo.com.au  Rae Johnston Image: NASA

Feynman 100.

”’Dick Feynman relished the pleasure of finding things out, and he had a remarkable knack for conveying the excitement of science to a general audience,’ says John P. Preskill, Richard P. Feynman Professor of Theoretical Physics at Caltech. ‘We hope this event will capture some of that boundless curiosity and sense of fun that made Feynman such a treasured colleague.’ The event will be divided into two days, with an evening celebration on Friday, May 11, and a scientific symposium during the day on Saturday, May 12.http://m.caltech.edu/news/remembering-richard-feynman-81875 Credit: Caltech Archives  Whitney Clavin

Einstein and the Quantum.

The notion of an underlying quantum probability proved to be too much for Einstein (and Schrödinger as well), who would now turn his back on the new quantum mechanics forever to pursue his dream of a causal unified field theory. In the end, Einstein would never realize this final dream, and the “strangeness” of quantum mechanics continues with us today.https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/einstein-and-the-quantum  Credit: Getty Images Scott Bembenek.

Steps:

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

When Will Your Industry Get Turned Upside Down?

Lessons from one era often cannot be applied to the next. In the 50s and 60s, IBM’s singular focus and investment proved decisive.

 
The only way to defend ourselves is to build codes that even the most powerful machines conceivable cannot crack.

 

When can an era’s key success factors be applied to the next?  Why do so many digital transformation initiatives fail? And what about block chain?  Is your industry about to fall prey to its disruption?

Disruption. Chaos. Innovation. Cancer. Graphene. Quantum.  A quick update.

Disruption

Why So Many High-Profile Digital Transformations Fail.

“With innovative information technology, however, executives sometimes lose their rational decision approaches. Certainly it’s true that in times of radical technological change there’s a lot of figuring out to do.  Executives have to understand what new technologies can do, and understand their impact on markets, products/services, and distribution channels.  These decisions are inevitably influenced by hype from vendors and the media, expensive consultants offering “thought leadership” insights, many high profile experiments, and a few exciting success stories that keep people wanting more. A charismatic CIO or Chief Digital Officer may make it even harder to be level-headed in those heady times.” Thomas H. Davenport George Westerman Harvard Business Review

9 Industries That Will Soon Be Disrupted By Blockchain.

“As new technologies are developed, affected industries are forced to adapt or be replaced. The newest technology that is quickly becoming the next major disruption is blockchain technology.  Blockchain is a digital ledger system used to securely record transactions. It is poised to impact the way business is done across the globe. Here are nine prominent industries that are slated to be overhauled by blockchain technology in the near future. 1. The Banking Industry 2. The Real Estate Industry 3. The Healthcare Industry 4. The Legal Industry 5. The Cryptocurrency Exchange Industry 6. Politics 7. The Startup Industry 8. The Video Industry 9. The Education Industry.” John White CREDIT: Getty Images

‘Asking Really Big and Bold Questions.’ Experts Debate the Power of Design to Disrupt.


Moderator: Clay Chandler, Brainstorm Design
Photograph by Stefen Chow/Fortune

“Big data and rapid technological development pose a myriad of challenges to giant firms to start-ups alike—and design can help surmount them through its ability to disrupt. That was the conclusion of the Disruption x Design panel concluded on Wednesday at Brainstorm Design, the Fortune, Time and Wallpaper* conference held in Singapore. “For me, start-ups equal disruption,” says Charles Hayes, a partner and executive managing director of innovation consultancy firm IDEO in Asia, who has been based in Shanghai for the last nine years. “This is a world where you have young leaders who don’t necessarily have a deep expertise in a field, but are asking really big and bold questions,” says Hayes.” CASEY QUACKENBUSH Stefen Chow/Fortune

Chaos

Chaos Theory, The Butterfly Effect, And The Computer Glitch That Started It All. 

“Yet if you do have enough wind velocity information, combined with an array of readings from barometers, thermometers, and such, you might ask a weatherman, particularly a trained meteorologist with access to state-of-the-art computers and software, to make a sound forecast. We often plan our outdoor activities these days with the help of newscasts, websites, apps, and voice assistants that provide reasonable forecasts hours or days in advance. It is rather amazing that meteorology can perform such a feat. Lorenz not only discovered chaos, he also identified its key mechanism. When he graphed his data along several axes, he noted the strange property that iterating (plotting the trajectory over time) any two nearby points resulted in their separation. The gap would grow greater and greater with each iteration until the mathematical “offspring” of the two points would be so widely separated that they be in completely different regions of the cloud of information.” Paul Halpern, Forbes. Hellisp of Wikimedia Commons / Created by XaosBits using Mathematica and POV-Ray

Innovation

Three Steps To Developing An Innovative Instinct — And The Questions To Ask Yourself To Get There.

“My core innovation principles are very simple no matter if I share it with my students, my employees, or my kids,” added Dror. “Have more dreams than achievements. Chase your dreams as fast as you can and fail fast if needed, but always, always ask ‘WHY?’.” Take a step back from what you do, and reflect on how you do it. Analyze the tasks and the roles you perform. Ask yourself a few questions.” Jay Sullivan , Forbes, Shutterstock

4 Things You Need To Do To Win In The New Era Of Innovation.

“Lessons from one era often cannot be applied to the next. In the 50s and 60s, IBM’s singular focus and investment proved decisive. A generation later, agility and speed to market became core competitive attributes. Today, were entering a new era of innovation in which the basis of competition will shift from disruptive to fundamental technologies. This will become even more true in the new era of innovation, when we struggle to leverage technologies that we do not fully understand. Firms that want to be on the cutting edge are actively participating in a wide range of collaboration platforms, from manufacturing hubs to open source communities. So in this new era, we will find it even more essential to focus on networks rather than nodes. The best way to become a dominant player will be to become an essential partner.” Greg Satell inc.com Getty Images

Cancer

Army of Nanorobots Successfully Strangles Cancerous Tumors.

“The precision of the nanorobots, which is what makes their potential for safe cancer treatment so great, is due to their meticulously crafted structure. The drug-holding “package” is made up of DNA sheets, measuring 60 by 90 nanometers, that wrap around thrombin molecules. On the outside of the folded sheets are molecules that zero in on nucleolin, a protein that’s present in the lining of blood vessels associated with growing tumors. These nanorobots show great promise, but they aren’t ready for humans yet. To get there, the researchers are seeking out clinical partners to further develop this treatment pathway. Still, the fact that it seems to work in mice and pigs makes it likely that nanorobots like these will be available as cancer treatments within our lifetimes.” Peter Hess inverse.com

Graphene

Graphene film makes dirty water drinkable in a single step.

“Now, researchers have developed a process that can purify water, no matter how dirty it is, in a single step. Scientists from Australian research organization CSIRO have created a filtration technique using a graphene film with microscopic nano-channels that lets water pass through, but stops pollutants. The process, called “Graphair”, is so effective that water samples from Sydney Harbor were safe to drink after being treated. And while the film hails from graphene, Graphair is comparatively cheaper, faster and more environmentally-friendly to make, as its primary component is renewable soybean oil, which also helps maximise the efficiency of the purifying technique’s filter counterpart”. Rachel England, Engadget CSIRO

It turns out graphene has been deceiving us this whole time.

“In a paper published to the journal Carbon, the team eventually discovered that trace quantities of manganese contamination from the original graphite or reactants actually hide within the graphene lattice. When the graphene enters the right conditions – such as in a fuel cell – those minute metal bits activate the ORR. The reason that analysis was unable to discover this until now is because the contrast between carbon and manganese atoms is so slight that the tools used to analyse them weren’t sensitive enough.” Colm Gorey Image: Angel Soler Gollonet/Shutterstock

Quantum

Intel just put a quantum computer on a silicon chip.

“The researchers used a special type of qubit (the quantum version of a classical computer’s bits) called spin qubits to run two different quantum algorithms on a silicon chip. Other quantum systems, like Intel’s breakthrough 49-qubit computer, rely on superconductive materials and near perfect-zero temperatures. A spin qubit doesn’t require either, it’s an electron that’s been agitated by microwave pulses. While other quantum systems are closer to being useful, the idea here wasn’t to create a better computer but one that would work with existing infrastructure. Intel, it’s worth mentioning, is the world leader in silicon chip sales.” TNW · Tristan Greene

Quantum Theory Bends The Limits of Physics, Showing Two-Way Signaling May Be Possible.

“Consider the simplest scenario, where two players, Alice and Bob, want to exchange a simple bit of information, i.e. either 0 or 1,” Dakić explained to Lisa Zyga at Phys.org. “They encode their respective bits or messages at the same time, directly into the superposition state of a quantum particle. Once the information is encoded, the partners send their parts of quantum particle towards each other.” What’s then needed is some kind of smart device and mechanism between our two players, which can route the parts of the particle depending on its contents. “For example, if the particle ends up with Alice, she would know that Bob’s bit was just opposite from her bit, and vice versa,” says Dakić. Alice and Bob have therefore sent and received a message in the same time as it would take a message to pass from one to the other under a classical physics system.” DAVID NIELD, ScienceAlert (ktsimage/iStock)

Unbreakable: The race to protect our secrets from quantum hacks.

“The danger lies in the fact that, before long, someone will build a quantum computer that can crack our most powerful encryption methods – the mathematical tricks that turn data into unreadable secret code to hide it from prying eyes. The only way to defend ourselves is to build codes that even the most powerful machines conceivable cannot crack. Which is exactly why some of the world’s smartest mathematicians have been attempting to invent a whole new class of encryption algorithms. Having submitted their best designs to the post-quantum cryptography group at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in Maryland, scores of teams are now engaged in a global race to identify the most secure by trying everything they can think of to crack each other’s codes. If we find an algorithm that survives every attack, it will emerge as the 21st-century’s gold-standard digital padlock.” Michael Brooks. newscientist.com Raymond Biesinger

Google thinks it’s close to “quantum supremacy.”

“It’s not the number of qubits; it’s what you do with them that counts. Here’s what that really means. – Though there are some potentially promising applications, such as precisely designing molecules (see “10 Breakthrough Technologies 2018”), classical machines are still going to be better, faster, and far more economical at solving most problems. “Using a quantum computer would be like chartering a jumbo jet to cross the road,” says Oxford University’s Benjamin. He suggests that rather than “quantum supremacy,” we should be talking about attaining “quantum inimitability”—in other words, specific tasks that only quantum computers can do. Other researchers have suggested names like “quantum advantage” or “quantum ascendancy.” Martin Giles and Will Knight MIT Technology Review GOOGLE

Steps:

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

Grabbing an Option While Falling Through Space

Falling Through Space

Disruptions.

From the same chapter, “Why Careers Are like Real Estate Markets”:

“Those of us who have been in transition (between jobs) can tell you that when you are blind-sided it’s not fun.” 

Major disruptions in our lives force us to change our normal habits.

A widespread and prolonged economic disruption across industries dictates …

  • where and how you retire,
  • the value of your house,
  • where you live,
  • your children’s education and
  • career choices,
  • your hobbies,
  • whether your are starting,
  • buying, or
  • selling a business,
  • your estate and
  • tax planning, and
  • even your charitable giving.

We know from change experts that we respond to a job loss in one of two ways.

The first is a version of walking the plank.

We’re pushed off a cliff into the valley of despair — the death-and-dying model — of

  • shock,
  • bargaining,
  • denial,
  • anger,
  • depression, and
  • finally acceptance.

Because we naturally practice selective filtering to focus on business as usual, we miss the clues that suggest just how close we’ve come to the edge of the cliff or plank.

Then we’re falling through space.

The Rules Have Changed.

And, they keep on changing!

A previous version originally appeared in the How We Got Here section of Adapt! How to Survive and Thrive in the Changing World of Work, in 2009, Co-Authored by Steve Howard .

It ‘s no longer enough to simply dream – it’s now more about making the best decisions possible in uncertain, confusing times — whether as individuals, teams or as organizational leaders.

When we come to a crossroads in our lives the path you’ve been on may feel like a dead-end.

But, you have many more options available to you than you initially realize.

You can choose any one of 11 options:

  1. Change positions in same organization;
  2. Change organizations in same field;
  3. Change careers;
  4. Work in the same job while moonlighting;
  5. Start a business from scratch;
  6. Buy a business with its own customers;
  7. Buy a franchise with a proven business model;
  8. Launch a consulting practice;
  9. Turn a hobby or artistic talent into a lifestyle business;
  10. Move to a lower-cost-of-living community and live on your investments and volunteer; or
  11. Retire, yet freelance or consult to supplement your income.