Which forces have peaked or are reversing themselves?

Turbulent changes in the current of our life – its pace, pattern and scale – challenge our notions of what is real.

 

Since beginningless time people have wanted to know where life will take them. 

 

Today you and I are in one of those periods that occur every 200 or 300 years when people don’t understand the world anymore, when the past is not sufficient to explain the future. 

Turbulent changes in the current of our life – its pace, pattern and scale – challenge our notions of what is real. 

How do you stimulate your own powers of foresight?

Consider the following thought provokers. 

Ask yourself, in following categories 

  1. What are the brand new trends and forces? 
  2. Which are the ones growing in importance? 
  3. Which current forces are loosing their steam? 
  4. Which have peaked or are reversing themselves? 
  5. Which are the “wildcards” about to disrupt us in the future? 

TECHNICAL thought for food: 

Electronics, 

Materials, 

Energy, Fossil, Nuclear, Alternative, Other, 

Manufacturing (techniques), 

Agriculture, 

Machinery and Equipment, 

Distribution, 

Transportation (Urban, Mass, Personal, Surface, Sea, Subsurface, Space), 

Communication (Printed, Spoken, Interactive, Media), 

Computers (Information, Knowledge, Storage & Retrieval, Design, Network Resources), 

POLITICAL thought for food:

Post-Cold War, Third World, 

Conflict (Local, Regional, Global), 

Arms Limitation, Undeclared Wars, Terrorism, Nuclear Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, 

Governments (More/Less Power and Larger or Smaller Scale), 

Taxes, 

Isms: Nationalism, Regionalism, Protectionism, Populism, 

Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments, 

Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact, 

U.S. Prestige Abroad. 

SOCIAL Thought for food: 

Labor Movements, 

Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits, 

Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs, 

Generations: Elderly, Boomers, X, Y, Z 

Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles, 

Affluent vs. Poor, 

Neighborhoods and Communities,

ECONOMIC Thought for food: 

Unemployment / Employment Cycles, 

Recession, Balance of Payments, 

Inflation, 

Taxes, 

Rates of Real Growth, 

Distribution of Wealth, 

Capital Availability and Costs, 

Reliability of Forecasts, 

Raw Materials, Availability and Costs, 

Global versus National Economy, 

Market versus Planned Economies, 

Planned or Organic Growth.

Steps:

6)   Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.

7)   Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.

17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year timeframes.  Will we fall into another recession?  Absolutely.  Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?

19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.

If a New Era of Technology is in the Driver’s Seat, Where Are We Going?

4 tech developments that will impact every business this year

Could a robot ever replace you? Predictions from LinkedIn, Kemosabe, Quantcast, and more

 

The Industrial Era Ended, and So Will the Digital Era

Today digital technology is all the rage because after decades of development it has become incredibly useful. Still, if you look closely, you can already see the contours of its inevitable descent into the mundane. We need to start preparing for a new era of innovation in which different technologies, such as genomics, materials science, and robotics, rise to the fore. You can’t rapidly prototype a quantum computer, a cure for cancer, or an undiscovered material. There are serious ethical issues surrounding technologies such as genomics and artificial intelligence. We’ve spent the last few decades learning how to move fast. Over the next few decades we’re going to have to relearn how to go slow again. So while the mantras for the digital age have been agility and disruption, for this new era of innovation exploration and discovery will once again become prominent. It’s time to think less about hackathons and more about tackling grand challenges.” hbr.org Greg Satell TARA MOORE/GETTY IMAGES

Could a robot ever replace you? Predictions from LinkedIn, Kemosabe, Quantcast, and more

I don’t think my job will be taken over by robots, but that doesn’t mean my role won’t change significantly as a result of AI. Although AI ‘stealing’ jobs is a hot topic, we need to look at the array of benefits tech has had on our working lives, and the solutions AI can offer, helping to remove some of the repetitive elements of work and freeing up our time. Looking at the marketing and advertising industry, AI is perfect for picking up some of those admin and data analysis tasks, but technology will never replace humans. With more time available, people can put a greater focus on developing relationships and being more creative with our campaigns, providing the emotional engagement a robot will never be capable of.” By The Drum Photo Tom Pepper, UK director of marketing solutions at LinkedIn, says he’s not threatened by robots.

AI will create as many jobs as it displaces – report

Our analysis suggests the same will be true of AI, robots and related technologies, but the distribution of jobs across sectors will shift considerably in the process.” PwC said about seven million existing jobs could be displaced by AI from 2017-2037, but about 7.2 million could be created, giving the UK a small net jobs boost of around 200,000. Some sectors would benefit disproportionately, however, with jobs in health increasing by 22%, scientific and technical services by 16% and education by 6%. By contrast manufacturing jobs could fall by 25%, transport and storage by 22% and public administration by 18%, PwC said.bbc.com Source: PwC

4 tech developments that will impact every business this year

1. New global landscape. The global economy is being redefined by frequent political and societal changes, which increase uncertainty and risk for businesses, the report noted. 2. Rethinking business models. That means enterprises must rethink the way they have traditionally run their companies, and embrace new tools like digital technologies and data analytics to evolve and remain relevant. 3. Human and machine collaboration. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning have already impacted the workforce, and the relationship between humans and machines will likely continue to augment human skills, more so than replace them, the report noted. 4. Digital workplace. The digital workplace involves flexible, connected workspaces, as workers’ digital lives become integrated across their job and home, according to the report.” techrepublic.com/   · Alison DeNisco Rayome Image: iStockphoto/metamorworks

Telling a good innovation story

Appealing to people’s emotions helps new ideas cut through the clutter. A “best beats first” innovator takes the measure of a competitor who may be dominating a market with an acceptable product, and then leaps to the front with something even better. It’s about winning through cunning, instead of using the conventional playbook of scaling a similar product with heavy investment to maintain share. Many innovators told us that the “fast follower” meme is bereft of emotion: no one ever wins people over by talking about their capacity for imitation.” mckinsey.com By Julian Birkinshaw McKinsey Quarterly  Firms Look to Emerging Tech to Drive New Business Models

While CIOs are increasingly being tasked with deploying and overseeing the new capabilities.

They include a set of artificial intelligence technologiescomputer vision, deep learning and natural language generation – aimed at helping firms “build decision engines that increasingly automate operations and engagement processes,” Forrester analysts said in the report. Other key technologies include business networking fabrics, blockchain and other distributed ledgers, edge, quantum and serverless computing, additive manufacturing, and virtual, augmented and mixed reality. Unlike building up a company’s tech foundation by leveraging various IT products and services, CIOs are increasingly being tasked with deploying and overseeing capabilities with the goal of “creating breakthrough business solutions.” Mr. Hopkins said. blogs.wsj.com PHOTO: EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY

You May Run From It, But Disruption Is Going to Occur All the Same — Here’s How to Embrace Change

The world is constantly changing and improving, which means any business that does not innovate will be outpaced by the rest of the economy. To ensure your company evolves with the times, consider the following tips: 1. Find inspiration in unlikely places. Some industries, such as health care, endeavor to avoid disruption by placing strict regulations on what and how providers can serve customers. Countless companies have tried to disrupt health care over the years and always encounter plenty of red tape. The latest attempt is a joint venture by Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and JPMorgan Chase. Stay tuned: The disruption there may be big. 2. Stay ahead of technology trends. 3. Lean into disruption as a positive force. In all fairness, disruption is no fun for established businesses. Leaders who are able to view the shifting sands as a prompt to improve their organization and evolve with consumer demands, however, stand to gain financially.” entrepreneur.com  · Per Bylund Image credit: Uber

Steps:

6)   Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.

7)   Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.

17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year timeframes.  Will we fall into another recession?  Absolutely.  Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?

19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.

When’s the Next Recession? Will You Be Ready This Time?

Will we fall into another recession?  Absolutely.  Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?

 

Get an early handle on the potential for a major recession, consider the potential impacts on you, your career, your organization and respond sufficiently ahead of any expected economic downturn.

 

Source: Shaping Tomorrow’s AI Robot, Athena. 

Forecast: The Fed will tighten too much and tip that curve into recession territory sometime next year.

Trend: Economic, Political

Sector: Financial

Insight and Source: Economist who helped discover predictive powers of bond market says there’s no sign of recession right now   Ron Insana | @rinsana

 

Forecast: Developed countries are badly equipped for another recession, both economically and politically, and central banks should be wary of raising interest rates just to control inflation.

Trend: Economic, Political

Sector: Financial

Insight and Source: Summers Warns the Biggest Economies Are Not Prepared for Another Recession Christopher Condon , Joao Lima , and Paul Jackson

Forecast: Many economists now expect a mild recession in the U.S. by 2020 at the latest.

Trend: Economic, Political

Sector: Financial

Insight and Source: IDC Forecasts Worldwide IT and Telecom Spending to Slow After Last Year’s Rebound; Economic Risks Have Increased

Related Forecasts:

  • “The U.S. central bank forecast one or two more hikes for 2018.
  • Assuming no additional stimulus in 2020, the fading of the U.S. fiscal sugar-rush after 2018-2019 could lead to withdrawal symptoms that could exacerbate a cyclical slowdown.
  • The U.S. could target an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods, followed by another $300 billion – bringing duties on a total of $550 billion Chinese products, which is more than the $506 billion the U.S. imported from China in 2017
  • In the US, headline inflation is projected by the IMF to increase to 2.5% from 2.1%.
  • The IEA predicts the U.S. will add 1.7 million barrels per day in 2018, followed by another 1.2 mb/d in 2019.
  • Being well overdue for a recession in the US, the unbridled optimism of global investors will eventually end, once they consider the plethora of rising risks.
  • Achieving policy objectives will become more challenging from 2020 amid a technical recession in the US and a faster deceleration in Chinese economic growth rates.
  • In the next three years, a rising amount of bonds maturing within one year entails rollover risk if financial conditions tighten abruptly.
  • A recession in the US will cause economic growth in Canada to slow to a little above 1% in 2020.
  • The risk of a recession really picks up after a year, or sometime in 2020 because that is when you start to see the fiscal stimulus start to fade.
  • One change from recent years is that corporate car rental prices in North America are expected to rise by as much as 5 percent in 2018 due to operator issues.
  • The US stock market is on the brink of an imminent crash that could trigger another global recession.
  • Borrowing costs climb to a four-year high just as investors begin to anticipate a downturn in the global economy.
  • US rate hikes risk triggering a recession in 2019 or 2020 by putting the brakes on growth.
  • With unemployment at 4.1%, inflation fears are rising: Typically, the Federal Reserve starts to increase interest rates to slow the economy and push inflation back into its lair – but in doing so, the Fed raises the risk of recession and pushing down already lofty stock markets.”

Steps:

6)   Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.

7)   Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.

17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year timeframes.  Will we fall into another recession?  Absolutely.  Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?

What Does It Take to Capitalize on Digital Transformations?

Businesses are changing right before our eyes as the digital transformation takes place around the world.

 

Technology- and data-based transformation has arrived in full force. And if you think that your company or industry is immune, think again.

 

Robots Might Not Take Your Job—But They Will Probably Make It Boring

“For many support workers, robotic surgery is much less satisfying than open surgery. There’s a huge amount of solitary setup work to allow the robot to work, then there’s a big sprint to get the robot draped and docked to the patient. And then…everyone watches the procedure on TV. While the surgeon is operating via an immersive 3-D control console, the scrub folds his arms and waits. The nurse sits in the corner at a PC entering data, or sometimes checking email or Facebook. There’s not a lot to do, but you always have to be ready. Compared to open surgery, it’s clean, safe, and dull work.” www.wired.com/story/robots- Matt Beane ROBERT DEYRAIL/GETTY IMAGES

AI cancer detectors

“Researchers suggest artificial intelligence is now better and faster at detecting cancer than clinicians. Squamous carcinoma. An AI system distinguishes dangerous skin lesions from benign ones. More accurate than dermatologists. An AI system developed by a team from Germany, France and the US can diagnose skin cancer more accurately than dermatologists. In the study, the software was able to accurately detect cancer in 95% of images of cancerous moles and benign spots, whereas a team of 58 dermatologists was accurate 87% of the time.” theguardian.com/technology/    Steve Gschmeissner/Getty Images/Science P

5 Leadership Traits Required For Digital Transformation Success

“Businesses are changing right before our eyes as the digital transformation takes place around the world. And yet many dinosaur leaders, as I like to call them, are still in these businesses risking extinction if they can’t adapt to this ever-changing environment. It’s true that leaders must be willing to accept change in order to remain competitive. However, I believe it goes even further than that. Change-agile leaders must be forward-thinkers who believe that the future is important above all else. They must be able to change quickly and fluctuate as the business world changes – sometimes on the daily. 1. Change-Agile Leaders Have Clear Purpose  2. Forward-Thinking Opportunists 3.They Fix What’s Broken 4. Risk-Takers and Experimenters 5. They Strive for Partnership.” forbes.com Daniel Newman Shutterstock

The Right Way to Try to Predict the Future

“If, for instance, a company has a product development cycle of 18 months, then it should look at least 24 months to 36 months into the future.  Why?  Because we know that if it spots any emerging trend or opportunity that may emerge in less than 18 months, it probably won’t be able to respond (since its own product development cycle is 18 months long).  With this in mind we can say that if you are doing trend spotting or future forecasting, you should look at a future from 1.5 to 2 times your product development cycle. There are caveats to this of course.  In an industry with aggressive competition and shrinking product development and product life cycles, you may want to look further out to skip generations.  In other, longer life cycle industries you may want to consider the life expectancy of your product.” inc.com/jeffrey-phillips  Jeffrey Phillips Getty Images

Competing in the age of disruption

”Technology- and data-based transformation has arrived in full force. And if you think that your company or industry is immune, think again. Only twelve percent of the Fortune 500 companies who were in business in 1955 are still around. Before stepping down as CEO of Cisco Systems in June of 2015, John Chambers spoke at a conference and bluntly told attendees, “40 percent of businesses …unfortunately, will not exist in a meaningful way in 10 years. If I’m not making you sweat, I should be. In an era of constant disruption and economic volatility, more and more companies are being forced to confront the reality of diminishing profits, stagnating growth and organizational uncertainty. Regaining the agility to compete comes down to more than simply cutting costs. It’s about embracing new ways to drive cost-consciousness and transparency, identifying mispent (sic) resources in order to unlock new sources of revenue and growth, and creating an operating model that can deliver on business strategy while supporting a culture of continuous transformation.” partneredcontent.fortune.com/accenture/arc-of-agility/ Paid Content from Accenture Strategy . The Foundry. Meredith Corp.

Turo, The Airbnb Of Car Rental Companies, Offers Corvettes, Ferraris, Teslas

“Turo has a stable of owners who want to rent out their vehicles. Then there are people like me who want to try different makes of cars. Based in San Francisco, Turo makes its money on the margin between what the car owner charges it and what the rental customer is willing to pay, less its costs for insurance, overhead, etc. The company has been around since 2009, but under a different name, RelayRides. It was rebranded in 2015, and has grown exponentially. Turo is now in 49 states (not New York, for insurance reasons) and has about six million customers and 250,000 cars up for rent, according to a company spokeswoman. Satellite operations are now in 56 countries. Once I installed the Turo app on my iPhone and signed up for the service, I put in the dates that I wanted my Corvette, and where I wanted to pick it up.” forbes.com Jim Clash One of Turo’s Corvettes for rent.

How Cloud Can Boost Innovation

“Hosting applications on cloud platforms is becoming increasingly common, if not an enterprise standard. Among the potential benefits are rapid scalability and elasticity—enabling systems to grow with changing business demands while minimizing costs—as well as on-demand availability, providing agility and faster deployment. Such benefits can be particularly valuable for innovation, which may help explain why cloud computing is growing so quickly. Worldwide, public cloud services revenue is expected to reach $411 billion by 2020, up from $306 billion this year. Any time spent on capacity planning, procurement, or waiting for requested infrastructure means less time spent finding solutions to problems and delivering value to the business, says Ragu Gurumurthy, principal and chief innovation officer with Deloitte Consulting LLP. “Every business needs to be digital to survive,” Gurumurthy says. “The cloud offers increased agility and speed to market as well as lower costs and access to cloud-native technologies.” http://deloitte.wsj.com/cio/ Sponsored Content. CIO Insights and Analysis from Deloitte

MIT’s new tech turns power plants and data centers into water sources

“A typical 600-megawatt power plant used at half capacity to handle peak power demand uses as much water as 100,000 people would in a year. Cooling towers at power plants use massive amounts of water–in the U.S., around a trillion gallons a year–to cool down high-temperature steam. Right now, much of that water is just goes back into the atmosphere as plumes of vapor. Varanasi estimates at a 600-megawatt plant, the new technology could save 150 million gallons of water per year.For power plants, or other buildings with cooling towers, using the new equipment could save millions on water bills, in some cases. Industry could reuse the captured water directly. But because the cooling towers create distilled water, it could also be treated further and used for drinking water. “If you install a cooling tower, it’s like doing desalination,” says Varanasi, who estimates that the technology could offset the need for building 70% of new desalination plants in the next decade.” fastcompany.com  · By Adele Peters

Who Knew Blockchain Could Make Government This Easy? This Italian CIO, That’s Who.

“With blockchain technology, South Tyrol can create a chain of certification that authenticates and maintains people’s data indefinitely — instead of having to verify every instance of someone’s data each time a citizen enters their personal information. Moreover, Gasslitter believes blockchain can act as an integration layer to help simplify the province administration’s IT landscape. He says, “We have more than 1,000 different software applications to store and use citizens’ data. Every agency is like a small kingdom and doesn’t share data. Our goal is to simplify processes and increase transparency. We’re creating a model of data sharing within South Tyrol that we hope can be scaled across Italy.” medium.com/sap-innovation-spotlight/ robin_meyerhoff 

Steps:

6)   Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.

7)   Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.

17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year timeframes.  Will we fall into another recession?  Absolutely.  Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?

19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.

Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing and the Future of Work

It will likely take a decade or so until some AI technologies become the norm.

Enterprise teams are content to chew through budgets on the wrong things because they worry they won’t receive the same monies the next year if they don’t.

 

3 Signs Your Innovation Budget Needs a New Approach.

Entrepreneurs and investors operate leanly. They know big-bang innovation rarely ever works. Instead, they take small, smart steps toward a solution without worrying about nitty-gritty features. In contrast, enterprise teams are content to chew through budgets on the wrong things because they worry they won’t receive the same monies the next year if they don’t. Talk about wasteful!  See your product or service from a scrappy, entrepreneurial viewpoint. Don’t waste time on that obscure API or flashy layout. If users want it, they’ll tell you during the prototyping phase. Spend where your product provides value, and innovation will follow. Far too many firms don’t connect the dots between their budgetary input and innovation output. It’s not as simple as spending more money. The truth is, it’s about agile planning, frequent failure, and regular reallocation of resources. The sooner your innovation budget accounts for those things, the better your balance sheet will look.”  BUSINESS.COM Emerson Taymor Image credit: lOvE lOvE/Shutterstock

Why Innovation Tends to Bypass Economics.

Many of these problems can be traced back to a basic economic distinction: the difference between invention and innovation. Invention is defined as the discovery of a new exciting idea, product or approach. Innovation means applying that idea through changes in operating models and mindsets. Too many areas today contain the invention but not the innovation. This harmful decoupling is driven by a combination of biases,  blind spots and inertia (knowing you need to do something different but ending up doing more of the same). In too many cases, the flaw has less to do with the need to come up with a brilliant idea, and more a matter of embracing it and adapting accordingly. That requires being curious, open-minded, willing to listen, open to experimentation, creating safe zones for candid discussions and learning from failure. Economics has persistently failed to address this fundamental — and solvable — problem. The gaps between inventions and innovations have led to too many foregone welfare-enhancing opportunities for individuals, companies, governments and society.” newsmax.com Mohamed El-Erian Bloomberg View One Photo | Dreamstime.com

This Is How to Get Started With AI When the Only Thing You Know Is the Acronym.

Autonomous AI, however, is capable of learning certain tasks that require complex decisions to be made. Autonomous AI often receives the most attention because it makes innovations like self-driving cars possible, but at least in the short term, the business world might have more use for AI’s organizational and triage capabilities. Whatever you choose to do with AI, don’t delay. “AI is going to revolutionize the world more than any other tech advancement of the past 30 years,” Mark Cuban remarked at the recent Upfront Summit in Los Angeles. Like the internet, AI will produce a rich-get-richer environment, and those who get a head start are going to run the table.” So far, the following areas of AI show particular business promise: 1. Predictive analytics. 2. Computer vision. 3. Natural language processing.entrepreneur.com Sourav Dey Image credit: Photographer is my life | Getty Images

AI and the Future of Work.

It will likely take a decade or so until some AI technologies become the norm. While that provides plenty of lead time for the transition, few companies are taking action now to train their workers. Another little-noticed problem is that the AI systems themselves are being created with data and algorithms that don’t reflect the diverse American society. Accenture research shows business leaders don’t think that their workers are ready for AI. But only 3% of those leaders were reinvesting in training. At a Davos meeting held by Accenture, Fei-Fei Li, an associate professor at Stanford University and director of the school’s AI lab, suggested using AI to retrain workers. “I think there’s a really exciting possibility that machine learning itself would help us to learn in more effective ways and to re-skill workers in more effective ways,” she said. ‘And I personally would like to see more investment and thought going into that aspect.‘” wired.com/wiredinsider/  WIRED Brand Lab for Accenture. GETTY IMAGES

A Simple Tool to Start Making Decisions with the Help of AI.

Clarifying these seven factors for each critical decision throughout your organization will help you get started on identifying opportunities for AIs to either reduce costs or enhance performance. Here we discussed a decision associated with a specific situation. To get started with AI, your challenge is to identify the key decisions in your organization where the outcome hinges on uncertainty. Filling out the AI Canvas won’t tell you whether you should make your own AI or buy one from a vendor, but it will help you clarify what the AI will contribute (the prediction), how it will interface with humans (judgment), how it will be used to influence decisions (action), how you will measure success (outcome), and the types of data that will be required to train, operate, and improve the AI.hbr.org Ajay AgrawalJoshua GansAvi Goldfarb MARTIN HOLSTE/EYEEM/ GETTY IMAGES

Physicists Just Discovered an Entirely New Type of Superconductivity: No one thought this was possible in solid materials.

One of the ultimate goals of modern physics is to unlock the power of superconductivity, where electricity flows with zero resistance at room temperature. What they found was odd – as the material warmed up from absolute zero, the amount that a magnetic field could penetrate the material increased linearly instead of exponentially, which is what is normally seen with superconductors. After running a series of measurements and calculations, the researched concluded that the best explanation for what was going on was that the electrons must have been disguised as particles with higher spin – something that wasn’t even considered as a possibility for a superconductor before. While this new type of superconductivity still requires incredibly cold temperatures for now, the discovery gives the entire field a whole new direction.sciencealert.com FIONA MACDONALD (Emily Edwards, University of Maryland)

Australian Scientists Just Solved One Of The Biggest Quantum Computing Challenges Using Material Found In DVDs.

In quantum technology, information is carried on quibits, single photons. For the quibits to be actually useful in quantum technologies, though, they need to be produced by Single Photon Emitters that work at room temperature (it’s just practical, really) and at telecom wavelength (the most efficient way to transfer information via optical fibres) all at once. It wasn’t easy, but they’ve done it. Those plucky Australian Scientists have gone and done it. And they did it using a material found in DVDs.” www.gizmodo.com.au  Rae Johnston Image: NASA

Feynman 100.

”’Dick Feynman relished the pleasure of finding things out, and he had a remarkable knack for conveying the excitement of science to a general audience,’ says John P. Preskill, Richard P. Feynman Professor of Theoretical Physics at Caltech. ‘We hope this event will capture some of that boundless curiosity and sense of fun that made Feynman such a treasured colleague.’ The event will be divided into two days, with an evening celebration on Friday, May 11, and a scientific symposium during the day on Saturday, May 12.http://m.caltech.edu/news/remembering-richard-feynman-81875 Credit: Caltech Archives  Whitney Clavin

Einstein and the Quantum.

The notion of an underlying quantum probability proved to be too much for Einstein (and Schrödinger as well), who would now turn his back on the new quantum mechanics forever to pursue his dream of a causal unified field theory. In the end, Einstein would never realize this final dream, and the “strangeness” of quantum mechanics continues with us today.https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/einstein-and-the-quantum  Credit: Getty Images Scott Bembenek.

Steps:

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

Driving Radical and Incremental Innovation

This chart shows every major technological innovation in the last 150 years — and how they have changed the way we work.

I had been struck by how the artificial intelligence (AI) seemed to use the same principles many of these successful Silicon Valley tech giants were using to induce innovation

 

Breakthrough Technologies. 150 Years of Innovation. Emerging Intelligent Machines. Squeezing Water Out of Desert Air. Future of Mobility. Digital Innovation Frameworks. AI and Radical Innovation. Enjoy!

10 Breakthrough Technologies 2018

Artificial Embryo

What we’re really looking for is a technology, or perhaps even a collection of technologies, that will have a profound effect on our lives. 3-D Metal Printing, Artificial Embryos, Sensing City, AI for Everybody, Dueling Neural Networks, Babel-Fish Earbuds, Zero-Carbon Natural Gas, Perfect Online Privacy, Genetic Fortune Telling, Materials’ Quantum Leap.” MIT Technology Review  photo credit UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE technologyreview.com/lists 

This chart shows every major technological innovation in the last 150 years — and how they have changed the way we work.

Steve Jobs with iPhone Innovation

In its recent Equity Gilt Study, which is a massive annual report by Barclays chronicling the bank’s thoughts on important topics in finance and economics, the bank focused heavily on new technologies and particularly on cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence. Included in the report was a breakdown of how productivity and output have developed over the course of the last century and a half, crossed with the major innovations that have come in that time.” Will Martin. REUTERS/Alessia Pierdomenico. businessinsider.com

Unleashing The Power Of An Innovative Mind.

With the advent of latest technologies of Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, rapid prototyping, artificial intelligence and big data analysis, humans worldwide are creating thousands of innovations in the form of smart machines. And these intelligent machines are not only beginning to perform human tactical tasks more efficiently but also are being trained to operate with human intelligence. However, humans have a unique power, the power of thinking, the power of innovation: encompassing intellectual, emotional and spiritual intelligence.” Dr Ayesha Chaudhary. Photo Credit : ShutterStock  http://businessworld.in  

Researchers develop device that extracts water from desert air.

Researchers at MIT and UC Berkeley have developed and now tested a device that can extract water out of the air even in the driest of climates. The team proposed the device in a Science article last year and now they’ve improved the design and tried it out in Tempe, Arizona. While there are a few ways to pull water out of the air, most come with significant limitations. They usually require humidities upwards of 50 percent and some need a lot of energy input to make them work. The research team’s latest design, however, works passively, without the need for energy input, and can work in places with humidity as low as 10 percent.” Mallory Locklear. Kim et al. engadget.com 

Bill Gates Thinks These 6 Innovations Could Change the World.

(Photo by Yana Paskova/Getty Images)

Better Vaccine Storage. Gene Editing. Solar Fuel. mRNA Vaccines. Improved Drug Delivery. Artificial Intelligence. Of all the innovations on this list, this one seems like the surest bet to transform the way we live. Although AI will create new challenges that we need to address – including how to retrain workers who lose their jobs to automation – I think it will make our lives more productive, more efficient, and easier overall.” Bill Gates. time.com 

Disruption vs. Innovation: Defining Success.

Innovation or rapid evolutionary innovation, as I define it, is turning your dreams into reality, or manifesting what you envision. Disruptive companies are those whose innovations or innovative processes completely change the market they serve. They might use an innovation to accomplish their goals, but not all innovations are disruptive. In other words, not all innovations cause a business or market to rapidly evolve. I firmly believe that all businesses must evolve over time in order to stay competitive in the marketplace, and that has shown to be true when it comes to disruption. Companies need appreciable time for their services to evolve and react to the needs of the market.” David Meltzer. Image credit: Natali_Mis | Getty Images entrepreneur.com

Forces of Change: The Future of Mobility.

Deloitte Insights

The result is the emergence of a new ecosystem of mobility that could offer faster, cheaper, cleaner, safer, more efficient, and more customized travel. Though there is some uncertainty, in particular about the speed of this transition, a fundamental shift is prompting a move away from personally owned, driver-operated vehicles and toward a future mobility system centered around (but not exclusively composed of) driverless vehicles and shared mobility.” Deloitte Insights theatlantic.com

2018 framework to understand digital innovation.

The challenge with distributed teams and tools, and with architectures that rely on distributed solutions more broadly, is managing the complexity of having so many moving parts. There is a hidden cost to such flexibility: it requires a lot of organizational coordination and integration. This can be confusing and costly for organizations and teams that lack the experience or commitment to put the right process in place. This is especially through for companies that start their digital transformation journey. New techniques will be developed in the near future, to ‘orchestrate’ the entire innovation process, from idea to shippable product, across all the different stakeholders. We’re already starting to see 2 types of orchestration capabilities emerge.” Andries De Vos. hackernoon.com 

A Secret Formula For Radical Innovation: Lessons From Silicon Valley.

I had been struck by how the artificial intelligence (AI) seemed to use the same principles many of these successful Silicon Valley tech giants were using to induce innovation—self-organization, simple rules, a generalist approach, diversity of input, speed of execution, and profuse experimentation (I gave a TEDx talk on this topic and wrote an article about it). I asked him if his company implemented these principles by design or coincidence. Employees must self-organize meaning they cannot be micromanaged, rather should be given broad boundaries using simple rules – if A happens, do B. In the process, they learn from trial and error and radical innovation happens when these errors accumulate and break through a critical point.” Sunnie Giles. Shutterstock forbes.com 

IBM has created a computer smaller than a grain of salt.

Specifically, this computer will be a data source for blockchain applications. It’s intended to help track the shipment of goods and detect theft, fraud, and non-compliance. It can also do basic AI tasks, such as sorting the data it’s given. According to IBM, this is only the beginning. “Within the next five years, cryptographic anchors — such as ink dots or tiny computers smaller than a grain of salt — will be embedded in everyday objects and devices,” says IBM head of research Arvind Krishna. If he’s correct, we’ll see way more of these tiny systems in objects and devices in the years to come.” Monica Chin. Image IBM mashable.com

Steps:

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

When Will Your Industry Get Turned Upside Down?

Lessons from one era often cannot be applied to the next. In the 50s and 60s, IBM’s singular focus and investment proved decisive.

 
The only way to defend ourselves is to build codes that even the most powerful machines conceivable cannot crack.

 

When can an era’s key success factors be applied to the next?  Why do so many digital transformation initiatives fail? And what about block chain?  Is your industry about to fall prey to its disruption?

Disruption. Chaos. Innovation. Cancer. Graphene. Quantum.  A quick update.

Disruption

Why So Many High-Profile Digital Transformations Fail.

“With innovative information technology, however, executives sometimes lose their rational decision approaches. Certainly it’s true that in times of radical technological change there’s a lot of figuring out to do.  Executives have to understand what new technologies can do, and understand their impact on markets, products/services, and distribution channels.  These decisions are inevitably influenced by hype from vendors and the media, expensive consultants offering “thought leadership” insights, many high profile experiments, and a few exciting success stories that keep people wanting more. A charismatic CIO or Chief Digital Officer may make it even harder to be level-headed in those heady times.” Thomas H. Davenport George Westerman Harvard Business Review

9 Industries That Will Soon Be Disrupted By Blockchain.

“As new technologies are developed, affected industries are forced to adapt or be replaced. The newest technology that is quickly becoming the next major disruption is blockchain technology.  Blockchain is a digital ledger system used to securely record transactions. It is poised to impact the way business is done across the globe. Here are nine prominent industries that are slated to be overhauled by blockchain technology in the near future. 1. The Banking Industry 2. The Real Estate Industry 3. The Healthcare Industry 4. The Legal Industry 5. The Cryptocurrency Exchange Industry 6. Politics 7. The Startup Industry 8. The Video Industry 9. The Education Industry.” John White CREDIT: Getty Images

‘Asking Really Big and Bold Questions.’ Experts Debate the Power of Design to Disrupt.


Moderator: Clay Chandler, Brainstorm Design
Photograph by Stefen Chow/Fortune

“Big data and rapid technological development pose a myriad of challenges to giant firms to start-ups alike—and design can help surmount them through its ability to disrupt. That was the conclusion of the Disruption x Design panel concluded on Wednesday at Brainstorm Design, the Fortune, Time and Wallpaper* conference held in Singapore. “For me, start-ups equal disruption,” says Charles Hayes, a partner and executive managing director of innovation consultancy firm IDEO in Asia, who has been based in Shanghai for the last nine years. “This is a world where you have young leaders who don’t necessarily have a deep expertise in a field, but are asking really big and bold questions,” says Hayes.” CASEY QUACKENBUSH Stefen Chow/Fortune

Chaos

Chaos Theory, The Butterfly Effect, And The Computer Glitch That Started It All. 

“Yet if you do have enough wind velocity information, combined with an array of readings from barometers, thermometers, and such, you might ask a weatherman, particularly a trained meteorologist with access to state-of-the-art computers and software, to make a sound forecast. We often plan our outdoor activities these days with the help of newscasts, websites, apps, and voice assistants that provide reasonable forecasts hours or days in advance. It is rather amazing that meteorology can perform such a feat. Lorenz not only discovered chaos, he also identified its key mechanism. When he graphed his data along several axes, he noted the strange property that iterating (plotting the trajectory over time) any two nearby points resulted in their separation. The gap would grow greater and greater with each iteration until the mathematical “offspring” of the two points would be so widely separated that they be in completely different regions of the cloud of information.” Paul Halpern, Forbes. Hellisp of Wikimedia Commons / Created by XaosBits using Mathematica and POV-Ray

Innovation

Three Steps To Developing An Innovative Instinct — And The Questions To Ask Yourself To Get There.

“My core innovation principles are very simple no matter if I share it with my students, my employees, or my kids,” added Dror. “Have more dreams than achievements. Chase your dreams as fast as you can and fail fast if needed, but always, always ask ‘WHY?’.” Take a step back from what you do, and reflect on how you do it. Analyze the tasks and the roles you perform. Ask yourself a few questions.” Jay Sullivan , Forbes, Shutterstock

4 Things You Need To Do To Win In The New Era Of Innovation.

“Lessons from one era often cannot be applied to the next. In the 50s and 60s, IBM’s singular focus and investment proved decisive. A generation later, agility and speed to market became core competitive attributes. Today, were entering a new era of innovation in which the basis of competition will shift from disruptive to fundamental technologies. This will become even more true in the new era of innovation, when we struggle to leverage technologies that we do not fully understand. Firms that want to be on the cutting edge are actively participating in a wide range of collaboration platforms, from manufacturing hubs to open source communities. So in this new era, we will find it even more essential to focus on networks rather than nodes. The best way to become a dominant player will be to become an essential partner.” Greg Satell inc.com Getty Images

Cancer

Army of Nanorobots Successfully Strangles Cancerous Tumors.

“The precision of the nanorobots, which is what makes their potential for safe cancer treatment so great, is due to their meticulously crafted structure. The drug-holding “package” is made up of DNA sheets, measuring 60 by 90 nanometers, that wrap around thrombin molecules. On the outside of the folded sheets are molecules that zero in on nucleolin, a protein that’s present in the lining of blood vessels associated with growing tumors. These nanorobots show great promise, but they aren’t ready for humans yet. To get there, the researchers are seeking out clinical partners to further develop this treatment pathway. Still, the fact that it seems to work in mice and pigs makes it likely that nanorobots like these will be available as cancer treatments within our lifetimes.” Peter Hess inverse.com

Graphene

Graphene film makes dirty water drinkable in a single step.

“Now, researchers have developed a process that can purify water, no matter how dirty it is, in a single step. Scientists from Australian research organization CSIRO have created a filtration technique using a graphene film with microscopic nano-channels that lets water pass through, but stops pollutants. The process, called “Graphair”, is so effective that water samples from Sydney Harbor were safe to drink after being treated. And while the film hails from graphene, Graphair is comparatively cheaper, faster and more environmentally-friendly to make, as its primary component is renewable soybean oil, which also helps maximise the efficiency of the purifying technique’s filter counterpart”. Rachel England, Engadget CSIRO

It turns out graphene has been deceiving us this whole time.

“In a paper published to the journal Carbon, the team eventually discovered that trace quantities of manganese contamination from the original graphite or reactants actually hide within the graphene lattice. When the graphene enters the right conditions – such as in a fuel cell – those minute metal bits activate the ORR. The reason that analysis was unable to discover this until now is because the contrast between carbon and manganese atoms is so slight that the tools used to analyse them weren’t sensitive enough.” Colm Gorey Image: Angel Soler Gollonet/Shutterstock

Quantum

Intel just put a quantum computer on a silicon chip.

“The researchers used a special type of qubit (the quantum version of a classical computer’s bits) called spin qubits to run two different quantum algorithms on a silicon chip. Other quantum systems, like Intel’s breakthrough 49-qubit computer, rely on superconductive materials and near perfect-zero temperatures. A spin qubit doesn’t require either, it’s an electron that’s been agitated by microwave pulses. While other quantum systems are closer to being useful, the idea here wasn’t to create a better computer but one that would work with existing infrastructure. Intel, it’s worth mentioning, is the world leader in silicon chip sales.” TNW · Tristan Greene

Quantum Theory Bends The Limits of Physics, Showing Two-Way Signaling May Be Possible.

“Consider the simplest scenario, where two players, Alice and Bob, want to exchange a simple bit of information, i.e. either 0 or 1,” Dakić explained to Lisa Zyga at Phys.org. “They encode their respective bits or messages at the same time, directly into the superposition state of a quantum particle. Once the information is encoded, the partners send their parts of quantum particle towards each other.” What’s then needed is some kind of smart device and mechanism between our two players, which can route the parts of the particle depending on its contents. “For example, if the particle ends up with Alice, she would know that Bob’s bit was just opposite from her bit, and vice versa,” says Dakić. Alice and Bob have therefore sent and received a message in the same time as it would take a message to pass from one to the other under a classical physics system.” DAVID NIELD, ScienceAlert (ktsimage/iStock)

Unbreakable: The race to protect our secrets from quantum hacks.

“The danger lies in the fact that, before long, someone will build a quantum computer that can crack our most powerful encryption methods – the mathematical tricks that turn data into unreadable secret code to hide it from prying eyes. The only way to defend ourselves is to build codes that even the most powerful machines conceivable cannot crack. Which is exactly why some of the world’s smartest mathematicians have been attempting to invent a whole new class of encryption algorithms. Having submitted their best designs to the post-quantum cryptography group at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in Maryland, scores of teams are now engaged in a global race to identify the most secure by trying everything they can think of to crack each other’s codes. If we find an algorithm that survives every attack, it will emerge as the 21st-century’s gold-standard digital padlock.” Michael Brooks. newscientist.com Raymond Biesinger

Google thinks it’s close to “quantum supremacy.”

“It’s not the number of qubits; it’s what you do with them that counts. Here’s what that really means. – Though there are some potentially promising applications, such as precisely designing molecules (see “10 Breakthrough Technologies 2018”), classical machines are still going to be better, faster, and far more economical at solving most problems. “Using a quantum computer would be like chartering a jumbo jet to cross the road,” says Oxford University’s Benjamin. He suggests that rather than “quantum supremacy,” we should be talking about attaining “quantum inimitability”—in other words, specific tasks that only quantum computers can do. Other researchers have suggested names like “quantum advantage” or “quantum ascendancy.” Martin Giles and Will Knight MIT Technology Review GOOGLE

Steps:

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

Forces of Change and Disruption

Silicon Valley continues to dominate the VC landscape. But its grip is slipping.

The result is the emergence of a new ecosystem of mobility that could offer faster, cheaper, cleaner, safer, more efficient, and more customized travel.

Innovation

How Likely Is Your Industry to Be Disrupted? Harvard Business Review. Disruptive Innovation. This 2×2 Matrix Will Tell You.  Industry disruption, as Accenture research has found, is reasonably predictable. And with wisdom about its predictability comes opportunity. To help business leaders better understand industry disruption, we developed an index that measures an industry’s current level of disruption as well as its susceptibility to future disruption. JORG GREUEL/GETTY IMAGES View on hbr.org

The New World of Innovation-as-a-Service. Entrepreneur. Capturing innovation from “the crowd” (as in crowdsourcing) is now streamlined enough to become a part of any company’s survival kit.  But here is a truism that seems impervious to all this technological disruption: “You can’t capture lightning in a bottle.” We generally understand this to mean that genius can’t be shackled and turned into a process. Brilliant ideas will happen on their own, not pulled from the mind under duress. Yet there is a growing community of entrepreneurs and academics who think that genius can be distilled into a process. What if lightning could be captured in a bottle? What if the exasperating pursuit of breakthrough ideas and technologies could be distilled into the push of a button or an act as simple as scrolling through an app like Instagram?

Convergence

Forces of change: The future of mobility. Deloitte Insights. THE entire way people and goods travel from point A to point B is changing, driven by a series of converging technological and social trends: the rapid growth of carsharing and ridesharing; the increasing viability of electric and alternative powertrains; new, lightweight materials; and the growth of connected and, ultimately, autonomous vehicles. The result is the emergence of a new ecosystem of mobility that could offer faster, cheaper, cleaner, safer, more efficient, and more customized travel. www2.deloitte.com

Funding

Here’s Where Startups in the U.S. Are Getting the Most VC Funding. Bloomberg. Silicon Valley continues to dominate the VC landscape. But its grip is slipping. Companies in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan area collected $19.7 billion last year, 12 percent less than in 2015.

 

Brain

To Advance Artificial Intelligence, Reverse-Engineer the Brain. Wired. YOUR THREE-POUND BRAIN runs on just 20 watts of power—barely enough to light a dim bulb. Yet the machine behind our eyes has built civilizations from scratch, explored the stars, and pondered our existence. In contrast, IBM’s Watson, a supercomputer that runs on 20,000 watts, can outperform humans at calculation and Jeopardy! but is still no match for human intelligence. GETTY IMAGES

Researchers Find Missing Link to Make Computers That Mimic the Brain. Inverse. The key to a new era of computer. In a paper published in Science Advances on Friday, researchers from the National Institute of Standards and Technology in Colorado describe how they built what they called a “superconducting synapse.” Biological synapses are the junction between nerves where chemical signals are transmitted from the brain throughout the body. NIST’s synapse can do everything its organic counterpart can do, but better.

Quantum

Here’s why 100 qubit quantum computers could change everything. The Next Web. One of the biggest barriers to advancing quantum computer hardware is dealing with all the noise generated by those qubits, they’re hyperactive compared to regular bits, so it’s hard to figure out what’s going on with them. But a series of advancements in error-correction and noise-supression have recently paved the way forward. And, if history is any indicator, we can expect a usable 100 qubit processor as early as this year. Credit: Guilherme Yagui

Physicists Create New Form Of Light. MSN / Newsweek. For the first time, scientists have watched groups of three photons interacting and effectively producing a new form of light. In results published in Science, researchers suggest that this new light could be used to perform highly complex, incredibly fast quantum computations. This research is the latest step towards a long-fabled quantum computer, an ultra-powerful machine that could solve problems beyond the realm of traditional computers. Your desktop PC would, for example, struggle to solve the question: “If a salesman has lots of places to visit, what is the quickest route?”

Enzymes

NEW ISRAELI TECHNOLOGY REPLACES SURGEON’S KNIFE WITH NO-CUT ALTERNATIVE. Jerusalem Post. People who have to undergo surgery but fear the scalpel will have a less-frightening alternative, the enzymatic “blade.” Researchers at the Wolfson Faculty of Chemical Engineering at Haifa’s Technion-Israel Institute of Technology have developed a device that replaces the surgeon’s knife with natural biological materials. The research was conducted by Prof. Avi Schroeder, a nanotechnology expert who is head of the targeted drugs laboratory and personalized medicine technologies at the faculty. The “blade” is based on the intelligent use of enzymes – biological molecules by which the body restores itself – as well as nanoparticles and technology for controlled release of drugs.

Steps:

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

Appreciation

Why swim upstream, if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction, right?”

Using economic cycles and bubbles, demographic shifts and a way of sizing up quality-of-life communities to live and invest in.

 

An excerpt from Book Two in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you make more money from a lifestyle businesses you’re truly passionate about.

Peak around the corner.

About the time of my own mid-life crisis I discovered the author Harry Dent.

Bubbles Bursting

He introduced me to economic cycles and bubbles, demographic shifts and a way of sizing up quality-of-life communities to live and invest in.

Any Poehler’s Leslie Character

Amy Poehler’s fictitious Pawnee, Indiana didn’t grow on me until season five when neighboring Eagleton, an ultra-affluent town, was written into the script.

In the sixth season the town of Eagleton, involved in a longstanding rivalry with Pawnee, goes into bankruptcy and is absorbed by Pawnee.

Fictitious Pawnee, Indiana

An effort spearheaded by Leslie after she sees no other way to save the town.

Having lived in a small Indiana college town on a bluff overlooking the Ohio River for four years and, then in another rural college town for my masters degree, I sought higher quality-of-life choices in a region that wasn’t so topographically flat.

But where?

  • And what if I discover after I move that I don’t like it?
  • What do I need to know ahead of time?
  • What if I chose a new Eagleton somewhere else and it files bankruptcy?
  • That can’t be good – except for Amy Poehler, right?
  • Nearly anybody can forecast the future.

How do you know which ones will come true?

I set up “The Journal of 2020 Foresight” after researching the top 100 trends and predictions from a variety of technical, economic, social and political sources.

And, knowledge labs to monitor key indicators in 5-year timelines –

  • 2003 to 2008,
  • 2009 to 2014 and
  • 2015 to 2020.

Why swim upstream, if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction, right?

The first knowledge lab, conducted during the 5-year timeline between 2003 to 2008.

Top Forces, Trends and Predictions

We began tracking some of Dent’s forecasts, especially the following four out of our original 100:

“4 – Basic innovation in communication technologies is allowing more people to relocate their homes to small towns and exurbs, and telecommute to business. 

3 – The baby boomers are moving into their vacation-home-buying years, which, in combination with the first trend, will stimulate demand for property in attractive resort towns. 

2 – The echo baby-boom generation is now moving into its household formation years, which will stimulate demand for apartments and rental property in the cities, and has already caused commercial property in these areas to appreciate, 

1 – There is a broad geographic migration towards areas of the country with warmer climates. You can expect the first three trends to be accentuated in the southwestern United States. “

Back to Harry Dent’s economic cycles and bubble forecasts.

He included a bubble wildcard as a fifth forecast.

The mother-of-all depressions, arriving sometime in the 2009 to 2015 time horizon.

Which presented itself as the mother-of-all Great Recessions.

More on that later.

The Warm Migration Trends
  • But, let’s say you decided to investigate opportunities triggered by the warm climate migration?
  • How do you explore the possibilities?
  • How do you go about it?

Dent borrowed from innovation, growth, and maturity product lifecycle curves to describe the potential for community growth and real estate appreciation.

S-Curve of Growth

You might say he spoke my language coming from my career in high technology.

  • Innovation – .1%, 1% to 9%.   
  • Growth – 10% breakout to 25% and from 50% to 75% and 
  • Maturity then to 90% – 99% percentiles.

What if the lifecycle model could be applied to resorts – estimating investment appreciation and community growth?

How does that work?

“The time it takes for an idea to move from a .1% idea to a 1% prototype, and finally to a 10% niche in the marketplace (Innovation), is roughly the same amount of time it takes for that niche to accelerate up the curvilinear curve of market acceptance through 50% to 90% (Growth).”

In the innovation stage, the risk is high and the potential reward could be astronomical.

If you found a small pristine mountain community at this stage and moved or invested in a vacation home on a lake, you may see your small down payment and mortgage pay off handsomely decades later.

Or not.

  • No guarantees.
  • Buy low, sell high.
  • As an investor, you’d want to find that goldilocks moment.

You wouldn’t want to invest too soon and wait forever, but definitely not too late when it is way too expensive to buy.

Pick sometime in the early growth stage but before the late growth phase turned into maturity.

When everyone else has heard of the premier destination.

As the mix of community residents begins to shift from High Country Eagles to Wireless Resorters.

You might find Pawnee attractive, but you probably missed the golden opportunity to move to Eagleton.

And by “season six” you’d be glad you did.

In priority order for finding the first three driving trends in one place – broad communications, Baby Boomer vacation-home buyers and echo-boom (Gen-Y, Millennials) entering the rental market, he lists:

  • Resort Towns
  • Small College and University Towns
  • Classic Towns
  • Revitalized Factory Towns
  • Exurbs
  • Suburban Villages
  • Emerging New Cities
  • Large-Growth Cities
  • Urban Villages

What if you’ve already built your mobile knowledge company, “Mobile KnowCo” and weren’t bound by your current fixed location?

How would you know if you found a town to fit your needs?

On your next vacation Harry Dent said to keep your eyes open for:

  • “A new look that includes intelligent town planning for increased human interaction; and abundant open space; 
  • flexibility in home design; 
  • planning for safety; shared facilities; and high-tech communications infrastructure.”

With those criteria in mind, we initiated coverage of “Resort Towns” in western United States like…

And, continued to aggregate lists of “Best Places” that fit Dent’s other eight categories of towns and cities.

Southwest Region from Wikitravel

From those thousands, we focused on and curated only those from six western and island regions:

  • Hawaii and other Tropical Regions;
  • Texas Regions;
  • Southwest Region (Arizona, Nevada, Utah and New Mexico);
  • Pacific Northwest Region (Washington and Oregon);
  • California Regions; and of course my favorite
  • Rocky Mountain Region (Colorado, Montana, Idaho and Wyoming).

But guess what?

All vacation destinations aren’t equally attractive and the reasons why aren’t obvious until you dig in and find out for yourself.

So, the only real question becomes, which one is right for you?

Especially if you longed for a fresh start.

Or were forced to take one.

(22) Selectively evaluate the best quality-of-life communities to live in and weigh the tradeoffs of risk and rewards for accruing real estate appreciation along a progression of rural and small towns that meet what your pocket books can afford.

On The Verge of a New Era

We are entering a new era when the interests of the environment and the economy become aligned. The one fly in the ointment is energy storage.

If new research is correct, this could be the best it’s going to get for humanity in terms of physical fitness.

 

Equality Neutrality

Here is how tech companies are responding to the repeal of net neutrality. “Google is a proponent of net neutrality and has repeatedly voiced its support of it in the past. In a statement released to news organizations after the vote, Google pledges to continue to follow the policies of net neutrality. Facebook is another company that voice support for strong net neutrality regulations. Many fear that with the repeal of net neutrality, world-changing companies like Facebook may never be able to sprout up. Facebook’s COO released the following statement after the vote (more) …” androidauthority.com

AI Learning Machines

5 Key Artificial Intelligence Predictions For 2018: How Machine Learning Will Change Everything. “All the indicators show that investment into the development and integration of AI and, in particular machine learning, technology is continuing to increase in scale. And importantly, results are starting to appear beyond computers learning to beat humans at board games and TV game shows. I expect 2018 to provide a continuous stream of small but sure steps forward, as machine learning and neural network technology takes on more routine tasks.” forbes.com

Inflection Point

2018: The Year to Shift to a New Era of Innovation. “Today we are at an inflection point. Costs for renewables have been dropping an an incredible rate and will become considerable cheaper than fossil fuels over the next decade. At the same time, electric cars are on pace to become cheaper to use than gas powered ones by 2022. We are entering a new era when the interests of the environment and the economy become aligned. The one fly in the ointment is energy storage. The current technology, much like Moore’s law, is nearing theoretical limits and advancement will likely slow to a crawl in the next ten years. So it is essential that we come up with at least two new battery chemistries — one for transportation and one for the grid — in the near future.”  inc.com / Getty Images

Neural Magicians

To Harness Creativity, You Need to First Understand Its Neural Magic. “Anthony Brandt is a composer who with leading neuroscientist David Eagleman has done a deep dive study into how human creativity happens. They’ve collected their thoughts into a new book The Runaway Species: How Human Creativity Remakes the World, which unravels the interplay of art, neuroscience and evolution, while celebrating the special thing that is human innovation.” entrepreneur.com

Cell Adoption

Potential “master switch” could help immune system fight cancer. One way scientists are manipulating the body’s natural defenses is called adoptive cell transfer, which involves extracting a patient’s own T-cells, genetically modifying them to target the specific proteins that mark cancer cells, and then injecting them back into the patient. This kind of therapy is proving promising against some specific cancers, such as blood and bone marrow, but not as effective in targeting cancers with solid tumors. One of the key mysteries in this regard that scientists haven’t been able to uncover is exactly what mechanism directs the T-cells from home base to specific compromised tissues. newatlas.com

Infection to Immunity

We Finally Know How Our Immune Cells Remember Diseases For So Long. A new study has filled in missing details on the steps our body takes to remember pathogens, finally revealing the steps our immune cells take to preserve a reference library of past battles. Scientists from the University of California, Berkeley, used a hydrogen isotope to label white blood cells inside volunteers, and tracked a specially selected virus from infection to immunity in order to record significant steps in the immune process. The big picture of adaptive immunity and our ability to remember and eliminate specific pathogens has gradually built up over the past century.  sciencealert.com

Genetic Plateau

Humans probably won’t ever live forever — and new genetic discoveries might explain why. There’s a limit to the human lifespan and physical abilities, and a multidisciplinary team of researchers say that we may have already reached this threshold. Sadly, it’s one that we may not be able to exceed. Indeed, signs point to a plateau in maximum genetic and biological limits for a person’s age, height, and physical capabilities. This first-of-its-kind study, that covers over 120 years worth of historical information, was published recently in the journal Frontiers in Physiology. businessinsider.com

Biological Limits

Humanity Has Peaked And It’s All Downhill From Here, Says Study. Sorry, folks. This is it. If new research is correct, this could be the best it’s going to get for humanity in terms of physical fitness. According to the paper, humans have biological limitations – and there may be no more improvements for the species. And it’s partially our own fault. Our effect on the environment, including pollution and climate change, is having a negative impact on our biological limits. What the review has concluded is that lifespan, physical performance, and height – which were steadily rising throughout the 20th century – have plateaued over the last three decades, since around 1980.  sciencealert.com

Limits to Success

Decade Since Recession: Thriving Cities Leave Others Behind. That said, for all the economic might the top-flight cities have gained in the past decade, many city officials and business leaders have become concerned that their success is running up against limits. Surging home prices and rents have made housing unaffordable for many. With cities like Seattle and San Francisco choked with traffic, engulfed by homeless people and requiring ever-larger incomes to live comfortably, quality of life may be at risk. In the Western United States, inflation reached nearly 3 percent in October compared with a year earlier, according to government data. By contrast, inflation rose just 1.5 percent in the Midwest and New England. realclearmarkets.com

Steps:

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.