Are we experiencing the fear of missing out (FOMO) again?
Are we experiencing the past all over again?
But with a new generation?
Remember the absolute real estate feeding frenzy before the melt down?
Wealth Management Expos.
We sat in the audiences and listened to their high pressure pitches to buy their training programs in downtown LA.
We encountered no shortage of
seminars pitching ways of making money with
OPM – Other People’s Money.
The worst case materialized when thousands jumped in and over-extended themselves just as the bubble burst.
They got caught holding the bag.
In a game of real estate musical chairs, the economy pulled the chair out from under them.
What were they thinking?
Obviously, not expecting a reverse cycle?
But, looking back now and projecting ahead, do the methods work?
Can you still find opportunities with the degree of risk you can afford?
What should you know?
So far we focused on moving to resort communities that bring out the best in you.
Should you just buy a second-home, but keep your primary residence and rent out your vacation home?
If you do move, are there any other ways to make money in real estate that make sense for you?
Just before the Great Recession managed to dash homeowner dreams and investor real estate businesses, most of the different methods promoted common profit goals.
Each recommended real estate deals that only …
generated a positive monthly income,
appreciation growth, with
zero or near zero down payments
securing a mortgage, and
cash in your hand on each deal.
Your job, then is to research and then visit communities that fit your criteria with fewer tradeoffs.
And, as a business model you could evaluate different types of real estate investments —
multifamily residential properties,
industrial and commercial units,
shopping centers and strip malls,
raw land or self-storage warehouses.
(22) Selectively evaluate the best quality-of-life communities to live in and weigh the tradeoffs of risk and rewards for accruing real estate appreciation along a progression of rural and small towns that meet what your pocket books can afford.
(34) On your visits look for any newer developments that may trigger changes in neighborhood patterns. New construction in or around the neighborhood? Major regional economic adjustments? Transition from households with children to ones that are empty nests? Rezoning, and dramatically rising/falling land values?
If they follow the broad trend lines, they will retire in place.
The community they now call home after their last corporate transfer.
Where their children and grandchildren call home.
Dent recommends checking out the best suburban and exurban communities on the edge of attractive cities in addition to the more compelling resorts and university towns.
If we look at the trends in which cities and geographical areas have attracted the most retirees in the last decade we can get a better clue as to where the growth will continue to accelerate as the pre-retirement and retirement age groups grow in the coming decade.
Psychologists have found that midlife is typically a time when many of us take stock of our values and goals.
He ticks off several reasons.
We attain a certain level of affluence through the combination of high earnings and a sudden drop in necessary family expenses as children leave the nest.
We confront our mortality, either by taking care of ill or elderly parents or by seeing the inevitable aging in ourselves.
For baby boomers and older Gen X-ers each reason can usher in a more positive ending.
Above all, retirement looms on the horizon as an expanse of freedom that many of us, working 8-to-5 jobs, have not known before.
All of these reasons compel us to pause, reflect, and consider how we are going to live the rest of our lives.
California doesn’t have a corner on the market for individuals and businesses seeking pristine natural quality-of-life communities with an open and innovative social environment.
While Dent believed California would grow, other communities in the West were forecasted to grow much faster.
And without paying a high price tag for a similar lifestyle.
Dent suggested these additions to your Western bucket list.
From Hollywood to Silicon Valley, along the coasts into Portland, Seattle and Vancouver, and inland to Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, we see the most innovative cities in America spawning most of the growth companies.
What do they have in common?
These businesses, primarily in the fields of high technology and entertainment, are the backbone of the new information economy.
If you’ve ever lived or traveled in the West, you know there is a clear difference in culture between the western states, the east coast, and the central areas of North America.
(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.
An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.
For each of the following predictions more current forces may delay and extend the age ranges for the Millennial generation.
But first, what about the Gen X generation?
They “occupy” several life stage demographic profiles.
Recall that the Gen X cohort accounts for roughly 51 million who were born between 1964 and 1980.
By 2015 they range from between age 35 and 50 years old which stretches across
30-44 year old Singles and Midlife
35-54 year old Families
45+ year old Families and Empty Nest Couples.
They have or are just now reaching their“peak spending years,” between the ages 46 and 53. Dent correlates demographic age to real estate segments.
Spending on trade-up homes accelerates from age 35 and reaches a peak by around age 44.
As time marches on they’ll move the Baby Boomers aside as target real estate buyers of resort property …
Sales of vacation property begins to accelerate from age 46 and peaks around age 52 to 55.
The Baby Boom generation conformed except for those members caught by surprise during the Great Recession.
Investment in retirement property begins to accelerate from the late 50s and peaks in the mid-60s.
In 2014 the huge generation numbered 75.4 million.
Born after World War II between 1946 to 1964, their median age 60 years old anchored their range between 51 and 69 years old.
Having moved through all of the other life stage and age segments they now occupy
55+ Baby Boomer Couples,
Empty Nests, and
65+ Couples and Seniors
In addition, Dent describes how broad geographical migration patterns significantly influence long-term real estate trends.
Certain areas of the country clearly and consistently have experienced faster growth than others.
For example in 2002 …
The Northeast and the Upper Midwest Plains states have generally been losing population; the Midwest has seen flat or modest growth; and the Southeast, Southwest and Northwest have all been growing substantially.
Will the majority of retirement age baby boomers move to remote resort locations like Mammoth Lakes, Dillon, Colorado or in recreational areas like Lake Tahoe?
“Psychologists have found that midlife is typically a time when many of us take stock of our values and goals.
Predictable Real Estate and Consumer Trends as Generations Change Aging through Life Stages.
Part One in a 4-part Series evaluating real estate and consumer predictions as generations transition throughout successive life stages.
Fifteen years ago in 2002, as Mammoth Lakes realtor Paul Oster reminded us, Harry Dent built several real estate scenarios on shifting demographics called “Age Demographics, Buying Cycles and Real Estate Appreciation”.
And years earlier management guru Peter Drucker wrote about how dismal most predictions turn out, except for one type.
Those based on fundamental demographics.
If I remember correctly he coined the phrase “Demographic Determinism”.
Dent said as a new generation enters the workforce around age 20, we can expect commercial real estate to boom.
The influx of new workers stimulates demand for office space and manufacturing facilities.
Since these new workers are also consumers, there is increased demand for new stores and shopping malls.
Of course Amazon, losing money quarter after quarter in 2002, had only just begun to exercise its disruptive influence over traditional retailing.
And the older Millennials coming of age in high school may have remembered a time when Amazon didn’t exist, but their younger brothers and sisters act as if they didn’t.
But as a rule of thumb, when it comes to residential housing you can identify five age-specific buying cycles.
Over the life span of a generation, spending on each category accelerates to peak at predictable age intervals.
When an entire generation goes through such predictable property spending patterns, we get a macroeconomic view of the wave-like fluctuations in real estate demand.
As a result, investors can know years and even decades in advance what kinds of properties are going to be hot and when.
For example, someone who is 52, a “youngish Baby Boomer” or “oldish Gen Xer,” and at the peak of his earnings doesn’t typically rent a one-or two-bedroom apartment for himself—though he might rent one for his 24-year old daughter.
Instead, he’s thinking about what kind of vacation home he wants or, if he’s already purchased it, how to transition to retirement in 10 years or so.
But, his daughter, just now transitioning from school-to-work, represents the median age for the Millennial generation.
In 2015 we already know her generation ranges in ages from 18 to 35.
They will be segmented into at least six life stage lifestyles.
20-29 Year Old Singles
20-44 Year Old Families
25-54 Year Old Singles and Families
30-44 Year Old Singles and Couples.
What’s their impact on apartments and retail shops?
The demand for rental apartments and retail space including shopping centers, begins to accelerate from 19 and peaks around age 26.
Here’s where the rules of thumb may need to hitch hike down the road for a few years.
Starter home purchases begins accelerating at around age 26 and reaches a peak around age 33.
Maybe, something else is going on, as we track Millennials through time.
DOUBLE AND TRIPLE CHECK YOUR SCENARIOS WITH A FINANCIAL PLANNER WHOSE FIDUCIARY DUTY IS TO YOU!
Option Four – Stay in your home, invest your equity
Reverse Mortgage or
Home Equity Line Of Credit (HELOC)
HELOC rate is 8.0%; this is based on a loan for 80% of the home’s value and is .25% below prime (Source: Countrywide).
Assume that there is one refinance after 10 years.
HELOC mortgage interest deduction is limited to the interest on the first $100,000 of the loan.
Assumes home is sold off to pay the loan; if another mortgage is taken out, transaction costs could be lower.
Allows both couples to live in their home.
Works well when the home continues to appreciate in value.
The HELOC debt is covered by the increase in value.
After paying off the credit line heirs receive substantial legacies
Remember both couples could deduct the mortgage interest by itemizing on Federal taxes attributable to the first $100,000 of the loan.
HELOC transaction costs are also quite low at about 1% of the loan and the credit line offers flexibility in timing any drawdown.
The costs and responsibility of home maintenance.
As cost of living expenses increase both couples may be tempted to spend down more than the initial 80% debt value ceiling.
Or, as their home value increases they may continually ramp up their debt.
Of course, they will need to make regular monthly payments on their HELOC or face the risk of foreclosure.
Reverse Mortgage scenarios:
Assumes that proposed legislation is enacted that would change housing limits to a national limit of $417,000.
Limit increases at 4% annually.
Assume current interest rate of 7% – includes the 6.5% interest rate and the .5% insurance premium.
Monthly servicing fee of $30/month is added annually.
This scenario assumes that interest rates stay fairly constant.
Reverse mortgage interest deduction is limited to the interest on the first $100,000 of the loan; accrued interest is deductible by the heirs in the year that it is paid.
It is assumed that the heirs will be able to deduct the mortgage interest in the year that it is paid, and that the heirs will be able to utilize $100,000 of that interest deduction.
The utility of the deduction will depend on the individual tax situation of the heirs.
Assume home is sold to pay off loan; if another mortgage is taken out, transaction costs could be different.
Enable these couples to receive regular payments (actually loans) secured against the value of their homes and be assured that they can remain in those homes for life.
Homeowners live in their homes and tap into their substantial amount of equity.
Depending on their age.
Prevailing interest rates.
As long as they live in their home, life is good.
No payments need to be made on the reverse mortgage (though they must, of course, cover the home’s routine expenses and maintain it).
Better still, loan payments to the borrower may feel — and function — like ordinary income, but they are not taxable income.
Under current law, payments received by a reverse mortgage borrower don’t count towards Medicaid resource limits provided they are spent each month and not accumulated.
Here’s the bonus while you live in your home.
They don’t count toward the income threshold for determining whether regular Social Security payments are subject to federal income tax.
Also, reverse mortgages do not count toward the $500,000 – $750,000 home equity test for nursing/long-term care assistance under Medicaid.
Here’s the bonus for your kids.
Heirs to a home carrying reverse mortgage debt do sell, they should be able to deduct the mortgage interest (subject to any applicable limitations).
During 2007 Fidelity cautioned.
Because the reverse mortgage market is still emerging, upfront costs are much higher than a HELOC — up to several percent of the loan value.
The product is complex and the amount available for lending is inversely correlated to interest rates — which are difficult to predict and impossible to control.
Are these five options the only scenarios for both couples?
It is possible to combine these strategies in various ways.
Both couples could choose to combine the first scenario,
Sell Home and Buy a Less Expensive Home, with either a HELOC or a Reverse Mortgage on the new home.
Why would this be in their best interests?
They could generate incremental cash flow.
Heirs would benefit from the new home.
Equity could be extracted for their comfort or future investments
But, here’s the kicker.
Time to age 94.
One couple’s planning horizon is 32 years while the other is just 19 years.
You need to take into account the difference in possible home values, cash flows and other variables.
Think of it this way — if these couples chose one of these options in the (year 2016) — the results we project would be realized for the Walkers (by 2035)… the Smiths would not see the results the table suggests until (2048 )— the last year of their 32-year planning horizon.
Since this age and timeframe difference is so substantial, the only meaningful comparisons to make are among each couple’s own options.
Remember, don’t rely solely on your home equity as a significant retirement funding source.
Recurring cyclical downturns in real estate can inflict severe damage.
Investment returns on residential real estate have been lower historically than
on stocks and bonds.
If you pour all your funds into your home you’ll have nothing left to invest for higher marginal returns.
Don’t count out the emotional components of owning a home.
The emotional aspects of homeownership can also present significant barriers to the use of home equity for retirees.
Whatever the financial case, the emotional investment involved can make it hard to sell, rent or float debt on a home after a lifetime of paying off mortgages — even if that strategy makes sense financially.
The comfort of living in a familiar home as one ages or the desire to leave the home’s full value to heirs compound many retirees reluctance to tap their home equity by either sale or leverage.
If you’ve planned well and acquired significant equity when reaching retirement age you’ve got multiple options for mobilizing it.
Decisions on precisely how to tap home equity require careful analysis and he financial and emotional trade-offs change as retirees age.
Non-financial personal preferences may quite reasonably trump sheer financial or cash flow benefits.
Peace of mind, convenience, familiarity are all real, if hard-to-quantify values.
Reverse mortgages do offer many advantages for retirees —
… notably, regular cash flows that do not count as taxable income.
But this market needs to mature.
High initial costs of reverse mortgages scare off many retirees.
Many fear losing their homes to the lender, even though there is no such risk.
The reverse mortgage market will likely grow substantially once upfront costs drop, securitization takes hold, and customer awareness of potential advantages grows.
With your financial planner double-check all of the
your spreadsheet calculations.
If the calculated risks are baked in, then go ahead with your eyes wide open.
Like all carpenters know, measure twice and cut one.
Pulling the trigger on any major decision like this one with consequences (intended or unintended) will significantly impact the rest of your life.
An excerpt from Book Four in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Rocky Mountain State.
“Buy land, they’re not making it anymore.” — Mark Twain.
Figure out if you should unlock that equity for investments.
Or more specifically, how to tap into your source of capital to fund your retirement.
Part One in a 4-part series weighing the pros and cons of investing in real estate over the course of a life time.
Leaving aside rental and commercial property or other indirect forms of investing in real estate, such as REITs, a more common scenario involves typical homeowners.
Those who bought years ago, paid off their mortgage or will have shortly and despite the negative impact of The Great Recession managed to build a decent amount of equity.
Don’t take what follows as financial advice.
If you haven’t consulted professionals, well, what are you waiting for?
Do so at once!
Back in February of 2007 I read a FidelityReport published by Fidelity Research Institute that compared unlocking equity for investments to risks and relative returns of stocks, bonds and cash.
Fidelity emphasized how much a home, and therefore it’s equity, is subject to market cycles.
Previous generations of Americans treated home equity as an illiquid asset being built up almost invisibly as mortgages were paid down.
They considered this growing equity either as an “asset of last resort” or as a source of bequests to heirs.
And, of course, back then those homes cost what a luxury car today goes for today.
So, it’s no surprise that future generations are on track to carry much larger mortgages.
And, they will continue to do so into their late middle age and even deep into their retirement years
… perhaps on the assumption that these larger debts will be compensated for by a continued rise in home values.
By 2007, more than 80% of all Americans over age 65 owned homes.
The median price of new homes in the United States has averaged an annual appreciation rate of 5.9% since 1963.
Fidelity cautioned, even before the more recent Great Recession
… historical experience suggests that real estate investments can suffer serious and sometimes prolonged downturns.
Sometimes it can be across the board.
But, baring a prolonged deflationary slump teetering on an economic depression, it is certainly true for local regions struck by extended economic decline.
Local real estate prices and your return on investment rise and fall with economic factors
… such as interest rates, per capita income, building costs and unemployment rates.
Shifts in your mortgage loan market can reduce your monthly payments.
Those innovations make housing more accessible.
Like variable rate and interest only loans.
But, they don’t come without their own set of risks.
Beyond the loan market, don’t forget to monitor important variables expanding or constricting the local supply of real estate properties.
General availability of land.
Land use restrictions.
Tough zoning rules.
Slow administrative procedures.
And, of course shifts in demographic trends
Average household size.
Household formation age (individuals in their thirties).
Fidelity said American real estate values endured three sharp “corrections” during ten-year intervals.
From the early 1970’s to the early 1980’s.
During the early 1990’s.
And, during The Great Recession at the end of the 2000’s to mid 2010’s
With the severity and duration of the downturn that occurred in 2006 still uncertain (published in 2007).
Fidelity tracked investment performance back to before you were born.
How did they say real estate investments held up?
Returns on a dollar invested in residential real estate in 1963 have been only lightly better than returns on low-risk Treasury Bills.
What about compared to stocks, then?
Over this more than forty-year time period, real compound returns to stocks outpaced realty, averaging 5.95% versus returns of just 1.35% to real estate after adjusting for inflation.
So, if you took a dollar and invested it in the 1963 stock market it would have “compounded to $12.36 by 2006.”
But, the same dollar invested in real estate would have grown to just $1.79.
What about those higher appreciation regions on the coast?
Even the highest appreciating regions of the country, the Northeast and West Coast, only realized real returns of 2.35% and 2.49%, respectfully, and underperformed the returns on bonds at 2.74%.
Don’t they say past performance isn’t a guarantee of future performance?
Still data are data.
Home values have underperformed stocks and bonds in terms of average annual returns over every five- and ten-year period from 1963 to 2005, but have only been slightly above the returns on treasury bills.