California doesn’t have a corner on the market for individuals and businesses seeking pristine natural quality-of-life communities with an open and innovative social environment.
Psychologists have found that midlife is typically a time when many of us take stock of our values and goals.
Part Three in a 4-part Series evaluating real estate and consumer predictions as generations transition throughout successive life stages.
Part Two: Demographic Lifestyles and Buying Power
Part One: Determinism
What about those aging Baby Boomers?
If they follow the broad trend lines, they will retire in place.
The community they now call home after their last corporate transfer.
Where their children and grandchildren call home.
Dent recommends checking out the best suburban and exurban communities on the edge of attractive cities in addition to the more compelling resorts and university towns.
If we look at the trends in which cities and geographical areas have attracted the most retirees in the last decade we can get a better clue as to where the growth will continue to accelerate as the pre-retirement and retirement age groups grow in the coming decade.
For this next part, remember what Mammoth realtor Paul Oster wrote – Dent’s track record makes him a better demographer than an economist.
Remember that on a 63-year lag for average retirement, baby boomers will be retiring in rising rates from 2000 – 2026.
After this boom ends, deflation is almost certain to ensue for at least a decade and possibly into the early 2020’s.
Dent said that means the cost of living, the price of real estate, and the interest rates should drop substantially.
This deflationary downturn will offer direct benefits to real estate owners and buyers.
Has the time come and gone – when Dent’s trends wither on the vine?
We only have to review Lake Tahoe and Mammoth Lake’s real estate markets to call into question the accuracy of Dent’s first trend.
The first trend is a broad migration pattern towards exurbs and small towns, many of which will continue to hold most of their value through the downturn.
This third wave of migration – an exodus from the suburbs – will accelerate through the first half of the 21st century, continue long after this Deflationary Shakeout ends.
The second trend will be a strong and consistent rise in retirement home purchases.
Baby boomers will drive the market for this kind of property from 2002 into around 2030.
A third long-term real estate trend to take advantage of after late 2008 is the rising demand for rental property in urban and suburban areas.
Why?
Apartments will be in relatively strong demand through about 2017 due partly to the aging of the echo baby boom generation.
Seems reasonable, and while we may have dodged the “Mother of All Depressions” he predicted instead with the Great Recession, Dent’s view on demand may be currently playing out.
Demand will be further strengthened by the effect of the depression era on individuals who are of an age to shop for starter homes, but who must delay this purchase until the economy improves.
Stuff happens in our lives.
Recall two midlifers, Johnny from Boston and David from Canada — two refugees from the cold weather who moved to Cabo San Lucas to start over.
Dent writes
Psychologists have found that midlife is typically a time when many of us take stock of our values and goals.
He ticks off several reasons.
We attain a certain level of affluence through the combination of high earnings and a sudden drop in necessary family expenses as children leave the nest.
We confront our mortality, either by taking care of ill or elderly parents or by seeing the inevitable aging in ourselves.
For baby boomers and older Gen X-ers each reason can usher in a more positive ending.
Above all, retirement looms on the horizon as an expanse of freedom that many of us, working 8-to-5 jobs, have not known before.
All of these reasons compel us to pause, reflect, and consider how we are going to live the rest of our lives.
California doesn’t have a corner on the market for individuals and businesses seeking pristine natural quality-of-life communities with an open and innovative social environment.
While Dent believed California would grow, other communities in the West were forecasted to grow much faster.
And without paying a high price tag for a similar lifestyle.
Dent suggested these additions to your Western bucket list.
From Hollywood to Silicon Valley, along the coasts into Portland, Seattle and Vancouver, and inland to Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, we see the most innovative cities in America spawning most of the growth companies.
What do they have in common?
These businesses, primarily in the fields of high technology and entertainment, are the backbone of the new information economy.
If you’ve ever lived or traveled in the West, you know there is a clear difference in culture between the western states, the east coast, and the central areas of North America.
Steps:
(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.
An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.
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