When compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth Industrial Revolution is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace.
What is it that big companies don’t understand about 83 million of their customers? What’s hiding in Mary Meeker ‘s 333 slides this year? If you don’t know what the 4th Industrial Revolution is all about, will there be any hope for you in the future? Why isn’t separating your recycles from your garbage bins at your curbside enough? What’s hiding in your gut and why does it mean to your response to drug treatments – especially if you suffer from Parkinson’s? And, what’s this about floating solar panel islands, CO2 conversion and sea water?
“But a new report suggests that big companies are having a sudden realization–something that almost every one of the 83.1 million Millennial Americans knew a long time ago, and in fact that they’ve been screaming from the proverbial rooftops. It’s that while as a generation Millennials are “digitally native, mobile oriented, media savvy, politically progressive, ethnically diverse, well-educated and culturally savvy,” as Adweek put it recently, they also have one other giant defining characteristic: They’re kinda broke. The big culprits? There are two (neither is a big surprise). Number 1 is housing. Millennials are spending far more than their predecessors just to keep a roof over their heads. Half are still renting, and they’re paying a larger share of their income in rent than previous generations did. Number 2 is student debt. Americans under 30 owe $384 billion in student loans. Go back to 2004 — and honestly, student loans were a big issue then already — and the number was just $148 billion for that cohort.” By Bill Murphy Jr.
“Well-known venture capital investor Mary Meeker is out with her annual internet trends report, which has become required reading for tech investors. After splitting with Silicon Valley investing giant Kleiner Perkins in September, Meeker started a new firm called Bond Capital, which has raised $1.25 billion so far. The 333-slide report highlights the rise in digital media and visual communication like Instagram, wearable technology and digital payments, among other trends. More than half of the human population is online, Meeker said on stage at Recode. Public and private investments into tech companies is at at a two-decade high, nearing $200 billion last year. Wearable technology is booming, and users have doubled in the past four years. E-commerce and ride-share driven digital payments are rising. Image-based communication like Instagram, is on the rise. YouTube and Instagram are gaining the most for time spent on online platforms. Interactive games like Fortnite are gaining ground. Total players have accelerated at 2.4 billion, up 6% this year. “Privacy concerns are high but they’re moderating,” Meeker said on stage at Recode. Media time spent on mobile hit “equilibrium.” China makes up 21% of total global internet users vs. 8% in the United States.” Kate Rooney
Curated by Steve Howard in “The Journal of 2020 Foresight,” the Know Laboratories’ digital magazine.
“When compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace. Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country. And the breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, management, and governance. The possibilities of billions of people connected by mobile devices, with unprecedented processing power, storage capacity, and access to knowledge, are unlimited. And these possibilities will be multiplied by emerging technology breakthroughs in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing, nanotechnology, biotechnology, materials science, energy storage, and quantum computing.”Klaus SchwabFounder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum
“Global investigation reveals America’s dirty secret A Guardian investigation has found that hundreds of thousands of tons of US plastic are being shipped every year to poorly regulated developing countries around the globe for the dirty, labor-intensive process of recycling. The consequences for public health and the environment are grim. A team of Guardian reporters in 11 countries has found:Last year, the equivalent of 68,000 shipping containers of American plastic recycling were exported from the US to developing countries that mismanage more than 70% of their own plastic waste.” Guardian US · Erin McCormick, Bennett Murray , Carmela Fonbuena , Leonie Kijewski, Gökçe Saraçoğlu , Jamie Fullerton, Alastair Gee and Charlotte Simmonds
“One of the most compelling, and burgeoning, areas in medical research today is the influence of our gut microbiome on a whole host of mechanisms in our body. A Yale University study just last week catalogued how 76 kinds of gut bacteria can negatively affect 176 commonly prescribed medicines. Ultimately this new research paints the most complete picture to date of how a specific bacterial species can disrupt the metabolism of a commonly used drug. The striking study offers a new insight into why medicines do not work the same way in every person, and better understanding these mechanisms may suggest ways to significantly improve the efficacy drugs we have already developed, instead of producing entirely new ones.” Rich Haridy
“Millions of floating islands, clustered together, that convert carbon dioxide to methanol fuel could help reduce the amount of green house gases in the atmosphere, according to researchers from Norway and Switzerland. In the paper, the researchers suggest floating islands similar to large-scale floating fish farms. They would use photovoltaic cells that could convert solar energy into electricity. This would then power hydrogen production and carbon dioxide extraction from seawater. The gasses produced would then be reacted to form methanol that can be reused as a fuel.”Scott Snowden
Steps:
6) Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.
17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year timeframes.Will we fall into another recession?Absolutely.Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?
“For too many retailers these shifts have silently crept up on them. Francese traces the root of the problem to the age of most C-suite executives.”
What’s wrong with science, and why should you care? Can science overcome three stumbling blocks to answering the greatest mysteries ? How many dabblers does it take to beat the experts? Are retail executives too old to prevent retail apocalypse? And so much more ….
Specific People Are Weirdly Good at Predicting the Future “The difference, according to the 20-year study, is that people who dabbled in a bunch of different fields learned from their errors. Meanwhile, the more narrowly-focused experts doubled down on their worldviews, often blaming some small unpredictable variable for their inaccuracy and becoming increasingly confident in their beliefs”. Dan Robitzski
Four Demographic Trends That Many Retailers Missed, But Not Walmart “But many other retailers have been caught unawares, which is the underlying cause of what has been called the retail apocalypse. The unexciting, yet fundamental demographic trends changing the retail market in American include declining fertility rates, shifting age and income distributions and how these have impacted the American family structure. For too many retailers these shifts have silently crept up on them. Francese traces the root of the problem to the age of most C-suite executives. “They are in their 60s and graduated from college thirty or more years ago. The culture was totally different then,” he says. “It is hard to pull that image out of their minds and replace it with something that is 2020.” Forbes · Pamela N. Danziger
Curated by Steve Howard in “The Journal of 2020 Foresight,” the Know Laboratories’ digital magazine.
Is Science Broken? Major New Report Outlines Problems in Research “Common issues highlighted by these scientists have included fraudulent, poorly done, or overhyped studies, with embellished findings based on small sample sizes; statistical manipulation of a study’s results during or after the experiment is over to achieve a desired outcome; and studies with negative conclusions being suppressed by their authors or rejected by scientific journals, which can then skew the medical literature on a particular topic, such as a drug’s effectiveness.” Gizmodo · Ed CaraView on gizmodo.com
Cosmos, Quantum and Consciousness: Is Science Doomed to Leave Some Questions Unanswered? “Gleiser, Frank, and Thompson highlight three particular stumbling blocks: cosmology (we cannot view the universe from the “outside”); consciousness (a phenomenon we experience only from within); and what they call “the nature of matter”—roughly, the idea that quantum mechanics appears to involve the act of observation in a way that is not clearly understood. Consequently, they say, we must admit that there are some mysteries science may never be able to solve.”View on scientificamerican.comDan Falk
New desalination method could get industry – and the environment – out of a very salty pickle “A by-product of oil and gas production, fossil-fueled power plants, flue-gas desulfurization, landfill leaching, industrial effluent and inland desalination, hypersaline brines are difficult and expensive to treat and if mismanaged, they can cause severe damage to surface and groundwater sources. Having an effective, affordable method for dealing with these brines could make huge quantities of water available for agriculture and industrial uses, and even as a possible source of drinking water. With these challenges in mind, engineers at Columbia University in New York City, have devised a solvent-based method of extracting fresh water from these brines which is efficient, effective and low-cost, and which they’ve dubbed “temperature swing solvent extraction” or TSSE.” Matt KennedyView on newatlas.com
How a Last-Ditch Hack Led to the Invention of Quantum Mechanics “Planck first proposed this little nugget of an idea in a 1900 paper, and the concept was later picked up by Albert Einstein himself. From there, the idea grew. Perhaps it’s not just energy that’s released in discrete, finite packets. Perhaps it’s many things. Perhaps reality, at its most fundamental, subatomic level, is … quantized. That single realization opened the door to what we now call quantum mechanics: that the physics of the very small is based on discrete packets of energy, momentum, and more. It turns out that the rules of the universe at subatomic scales don’t look very much like our macroscopic rules, and we have Max Planck (accidentally) to thank for it.” View on space.com By Paul Sutter
Scientists Say They’ve Cooked Up an Endlessly Recyclable Plastic “Plastics aren’t recycled nearly as much as we’d like them to be, but a team from Berkeley Lab has developed a method to hopefully make that process easier. In a recently published study, these researches describe a new type of plastic that can be broken down at the molecular level to create new plastic without any deterioration in quality. The goal is to improve the recycling process so that fewer plastics end up in landfills or oceans.” View on earther.gizmodo.com Yessenia Funes
Steps:
6) Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.
17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year timeframes.Will we fall into another recession?Absolutely.Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?
Turbulent changes in the current of our life – its pace, pattern and scale – challenge our notions of what is real.
Since beginningless time people have wanted to know where life will take them.
Today you and I are in one of those periods that occur every 200 or 300 years when people don’t understand the world anymore, when the past is not sufficient to explain the future.
Turbulent changes in the current of our life – its pace, pattern and scale – challenge our notions of what is real.
How do you stimulate your own powers of foresight?
Consider the following thought provokers.
Ask yourself, in following categories
What are the brand new trends and forces?
Which are the ones growing in importance?
Which current forces are loosing their steam?
Which have peaked or are reversing themselves?
Which are the “wildcards” about to disrupt us in the future?
Cartels, Multinational Corporations, Balance of Trade, Third Party Payments,
Regulations (OSHA, etc.) Environmental Impact,
U.S. Prestige Abroad.
SOCIAL Thought for food:
Labor Movements,
Employment Patterns, Work Hours / Schedules, Fringe Benefits,
Management Approaches, Accounting Policies, Productivity, Energy Costs,
Generations: Elderly, Boomers, X, Y, Z
Urban vs. Rural Lifestyles,
Affluent vs. Poor,
Neighborhoods and Communities,
ECONOMIC Thought for food:
Unemployment / Employment Cycles,
Recession, Balance of Payments,
Inflation,
Taxes,
Rates of Real Growth,
Distribution of Wealth,
Capital Availability and Costs,
Reliability of Forecasts,
Raw Materials, Availability and Costs,
Global versus National Economy,
Market versus Planned Economies,
Planned or Organic Growth.
Steps:
6) Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.
7) Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.
17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year timeframes.Will we fall into another recession?Absolutely.Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?
19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.
“Why swim upstream, if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction, right?”
Using economic cycles and bubbles, demographic shifts and a way of sizing up quality-of-life communities to live and invest in.
An excerpt from Book Two in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you make more money from a lifestyle businesses you’re truly passionate about.
Peak around the corner.
About the time of my own mid-life crisis I discovered the author Harry Dent.
Bubbles Bursting
He introduced me to economic cycles and bubbles, demographic shifts and a way of sizing up quality-of-life communities to live and invest in.
Any Poehler’s Leslie Character
Amy Poehler’s fictitious Pawnee, Indiana didn’t grow on me until season five when neighboring Eagleton, an ultra-affluent town, was written into the script.
In the sixth season the town of Eagleton, involved in a longstanding rivalry with Pawnee, goes into bankruptcy and is absorbed by Pawnee.
Fictitious Pawnee, Indiana
An effort spearheaded by Leslie after she sees no other way to save the town.
Having lived in a small Indiana college town on a bluff overlooking the Ohio River for four years and, then in another rural college town for my masters degree, I sought higher quality-of-life choices in a region that wasn’t so topographically flat.
But where?
And what if I discover after I move that I don’t like it?
What do I need to know ahead of time?
What if I chose a new Eagleton somewhere else and it files bankruptcy?
That can’t be good – except for Amy Poehler, right?
Nearly anybody can forecast the future.
How do you know which ones will come true?
I set up “The Journal of 2020 Foresight” after researching the top 100 trends and predictions from a variety of technical, economic, social and political sources.
And, knowledge labs to monitor key indicators in 5-year timelines –
2003 to 2008,
2009 to 2014 and
2015 to 2020.
Why swim upstream, if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction, right?
The first knowledge lab, conducted during the 5-year timeline between 2003 to 2008.
“4 – Basic innovation in communication technologies is allowing more people to relocate their homes to small towns and exurbs, and telecommute to business.
3 – The baby boomers are moving into their vacation-home-buying years, which, in combination with the first trend, will stimulate demand for property in attractive resort towns.
2 – The echo baby-boom generation is now moving into its household formation years, which will stimulate demand for apartments and rental property in the cities, and has already caused commercial property in these areas to appreciate,
1 – There is a broad geographic migration towards areas of the country with warmer climates. You can expect the first three trends to be accentuated in the southwestern United States. “
Back to Harry Dent’s economic cycles and bubble forecasts.
He included a bubble wildcard as a fifth forecast.
The mother-of-all depressions, arriving sometime in the 2009 to 2015 time horizon.
Which presented itself as the mother-of-all Great Recessions.
More on that later.
The Warm Migration Trends
But, let’s say you decided to investigate opportunities triggered by the warm climate migration?
How do you explore the possibilities?
How do you go about it?
Dent borrowed from innovation, growth, and maturity product lifecycle curves to describe the potential for community growth and real estate appreciation.
S-Curve of Growth
You might say he spoke my language coming from my career in high technology.
Innovation – .1%, 1% to 9%.
Growth – 10% breakout to 25% and from 50% to 75% and
Maturity then to 90% – 99% percentiles.
What if the lifecycle model could be applied to resorts – estimating investment appreciation and community growth?
How does that work?
“The time it takes for an idea to move from a .1% idea to a 1% prototype, and finally to a 10% niche in the marketplace (Innovation), is roughly the same amount of time it takes for that niche to accelerate up the curvilinear curve of market acceptance through 50% to 90% (Growth).”
In the innovation stage, the risk is high and the potential reward could be astronomical.
If you found a small pristine mountain community at this stage and moved or invested in a vacation home on a lake, you may see your small down payment and mortgage pay off handsomely decades later.
Or not.
No guarantees.
Buy low, sell high.
As an investor, you’d want to find that goldilocks moment.
You wouldn’t want to invest too soon and wait forever, but definitely not too late when it is way too expensive to buy.
Pick sometime in the early growth stage but before the late growth phase turned into maturity.
When everyone else has heard of the premier destination.
As the mix of community residents begins to shift from High Country Eagles to Wireless Resorters.
You might find Pawnee attractive, but you probably missed the golden opportunity to move to Eagleton.
And by “season six” you’d be glad you did.
In priority order for finding the first three driving trends in one place – broad communications, Baby Boomer vacation-home buyers and echo-boom (Gen-Y, Millennials) entering the rental market, he lists:
Resort Towns
Small College and University Towns
Classic Towns
Revitalized Factory Towns
Exurbs
Suburban Villages
Emerging New Cities
Large-Growth Cities
Urban Villages
What if you’ve already built your mobile knowledge company, “Mobile KnowCo” and weren’t bound by your current fixed location?
How would you know if you found a town to fit your needs?
On your next vacation Harry Dent said to keep your eyes open for:
“A new look that includes intelligent town planning for increased human interaction; and abundant open space;
flexibility in home design;
planning for safety; shared facilities; and high-tech communications infrastructure.”
With those criteria in mind, we initiated coverage of “Resort Towns” in western United States like…
And, continued to aggregate lists of “Best Places” that fit Dent’s other eight categories of towns and cities.
Southwest Region from Wikitravel
From those thousands, we focused on and curated only those from six western and island regions:
Hawaii and other Tropical Regions;
Texas Regions;
Southwest Region (Arizona, Nevada, Utah and New Mexico);
Pacific Northwest Region (Washington and Oregon);
California Regions; and of course my favorite
Rocky Mountain Region (Colorado, Montana, Idaho and Wyoming).
But guess what?
All vacation destinations aren’t equally attractive and the reasons why aren’t obvious until you dig in and find out for yourself.
So, the only real question becomes, which one is right for you?
Especially if you longed for a fresh start.
Or were forced to take one.
(22) Selectively evaluate the best quality-of-life communities to live in and weigh the tradeoffs of risk and rewards for accruing real estate appreciation along a progression of rural and small towns that meet what your pocket books can afford.
If you review the 2009 to 2014 timeframe, the financial experts suggest a simple investment strategy. Find the stocks that performed horribly, lagging far behind the market leaders.
Stock Market Performance
“You want to buy stocks of the companies where that extra income is going to be spent. That could make technology, for one, a big beneficiary, as well as healthcare and entertainment.”
An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.
Please remember. Check in with your financial planner as the following trends and opinions change and may have before you read this.
Rules of Thumb
Is there a rule of thumb you can count on going forward?
You know like “buy low, sell high.”
As they say in my family, it’s all relative.
If stocks earn 4% a year, but cash in the bank earns just 1%, stocks still win by a long shot.
So Baby Boomers will have to stay in the stock market for a portion of their portfolio.
For Millennials who invest on a regular basis in an IRA or 401(k) plan, and who won’t need to tap into their funds for two decades or longer, just buy and hold.
Unlike the Baby Boomers who fear a significant loss over the next five years, don’t fret about bad financial news.
In fact, root for falling stocks, because you’ll be getting more shares for your money.
If you review the 2009 to 2014 timeframe, the financial experts suggest a simple investment strategy.
Find the stocks that performed horribly, lagging far behind the market leaders.
Tracking Winners and Losers
While the market leaders run out of steam, the laggards will probably …
beat U.S. returns over the next five years by buying low to eventually sell high. But psychologically, it’s hard to buy losers.
Losers like:
Foreign stocks and bonds.
Emerging-market stock funds .
They’ve lost 5.8% a year.
“We’re expecting to raise our positions there in the back half of 2016.”
Understand the risks, though.
In a world where a stronger dollar and weaker currencies depress the returns for American investors in foreign markets it may be time to nibble here and there.
Bears vs. the Bulls
“It will never be obvious when the markets, or their currencies, have hit bottom. next five years.”
In a reversal, financial advisors and economists expect China’s share of global growth to fall to 21%.
But, they expect emerging economies’ share to climb to 34%.
And, previously out of favor European and Japanese stocks will continue to benefit from their central bank policies aimed at keeping interest rates at rock bottom to support growth.
But there’s no getting around the fact that …
“the world will face a financial crisis rooted in mammoth debt levels.”
In 2016 a pivot in pay increases will be welcome news in the U.S. households.
But, maybe not for stockholders as promotions and bonuses usually come at the expense of corporate profit margins.
And, the grass is greener.
Getting Ready for Musical Chairs
The percentage of talented employees voluntarily quitting their jobs for better opportunities is the highest since early in the Great Recession.
Typically though …
“It takes a long time for people to realize they’re in a better bargaining position.”
That can change quickly thanks to the Internet and social media.
Once trading places begins, Millennials and savvy Gen Xs can take advantage of a powerful means to discover which companies are good ones to work for and which to avoid.
Consumer Behavior Influencing Stock Performance
It won’t take long for workers who feel under appreciated to make the jump.
And, that’s great, right?
“In a perfect world, rising wages would spark a ‘virtuous circle’ where workers would boost spending, driving up demand for goods and services. That would lift business sales and earnings, in turn allowing companies to continue raising wages.”
A virtuous circle takes time to develop in a less than perfect world like the one you and I live in.
But, here’s another simple rule of thumb.
Changing Tech Leaders
Where the real economy may influence the stock market.
Where consumer spending by Millennials and Baby Boomers may figure into gains in your portfolio.
As one expert put it.
“You want to buy stocks of the companies where that extra income is going to be spent. That could make technology, for one, a big beneficiary, as well as healthcare and entertainment.”
Steps:
(6) Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.
(7) Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.
(17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year time frames. Will we fall into another recession? Absolutely. Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?
(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.
Please remember. Check in with your financial planner as the following trends and opinions change and may have before you read this.
What about the 25 year old Millennials?
Many, if not most of the college educated are burdened by student loans and high rents that eat up a huge share of income.
Good news for landlords, probably not so much for the starter home demand, yet.
But, for those who successfully found good employment with a fresh start on a career path, even if their pay rises they’re reluctant to spend — or take a chance on a new job — so, don’t count on a broad positive impact on the economy just yet.
Their risk aversion may be one of the biggest overhangs from the Great Recession.
Look, they witnessed the financial woes their parents or friends endured after the 2008 crash.
While the demographic trends probably aren’t as negative for growth, you should account for them and prepare to adjust in any long-term scenarios you construct.
Obviously they’re the early adopters for companies including Airbnb and Uber..
And as another expert cautioned …
It’s impossible to know in advance how many business ideas will spring up to disrupt or even replace existing industries.
The period after the 2008 financial crash turned out to be pretty decent for the U.S. economy.
Many economists and financial news channel pundits peddled dire forecasts in 2009 and 2010.
Harry Dent years before even predicted the “Mother of all Depressions” lasting well into the decade beginning in 2010 and lasting until 2020.
Instead, by the end of 2015 …
The official unemployment rate is back to 5%.
Corporate earnings reached record highs.
And a venture capital boom has funded thousands of promising start-up companies.
But, what lies ahead?
Have we celebrated too soon?
The contrarian message appears more reasonable.
The economy and markets face challenges that could make the next five years very different.
Like what?
Don’t expect more than “low single digit returns on stocks and bonds.”
The annualized investment returns will be lousy as the January 2016 steep plunge foreshadowed.
Were talking 4% to 4.5% roughly half of what wealth managers plan for their clients.
And, that’s through the end of the decade
So, the forecast remains turbulent with plenty of volatility.
News at 11.
Will we ever return to tried and true savings vehicles for the Baby Boomers hitting retirements like their parents swore by?
One economist says don’t hold your breath,
“As for bonds, with yields so low it’s mathematically impossible for fixed-income securities to earn high returns.”
How is that possible?
Five years ago a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was paying 3.5% in annual interest.
Now, new notes pay 2.11%. The drop in yields means older, higher-yielding bonds have risen in value, boosting their “total return” — interest plus principal change.
Yeah, so?
But with the Federal Reserve’s decision in December to begin raising short-term interest rates from near zero, it becomes more difficult to imagine longer-term rates declining significantly, barring a new recession or global shock.
Here’s what hurts my brain when wrapping my head around bonds.
If longer-term rates stay where they are, all you earn is the interest.
And if market rates rise, older bonds will fall in value, offsetting some or all of your interest earnings.
Steps:
(6) Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.
(7) Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.
(17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year time frames. Will we fall into another recession? Absolutely. Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?
(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.
“It’s impossible to know in advance how many business ideas will spring up to disrupt or even replace existing industries.”
Nest Egg
Seared into their brains is a haunting future in which they outlive their next egg, not having saved enough money for retirement.
An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.
Part One in a 3-Part Series.
Please remember. Check in with your financial planner as the following trends and opinions change and may have before you read this.
Aging Baby Boomers
Sometime in 2015 Millennials overtook Baby Boomers as the nation’s largest living generation.
Most everyone older and younger than the Baby Boomer generation grew tired of living in its shadow.
Thanks, Baby Boomers
And hearing about its impact on the economy, real estate, and well, you name it.
The oldest Millennial was born in 1981 and the youngest in 1997
So doing the math for you, it works out like this.
Millennials (ages 18 to 34 in 2015) numbered 75.3 million while the Boomers (ages 51 to 69 in 2015) dropped slightly from the decades long, popular estimate of 75 million to 74.9 million.
One estimate projected 75.4 million Boomers lived in 2014.
The bottom line?
Ain’t No Spring Chickens
They aren’t babies any longer.
Fewer and fewer of them will be around each advancing year.
In between, as you recall, lies the Gen X population (ages 35 to 50 in 2015.)
Sandwiched Gen-X
They get no respect.
And they’re already sick and tired reading or hearing about the older and younger generations.
But, they’ll have to get used to it since the Millennial population is projected to peak in 2036 at 81.1 million when the Millennials reach 56 years of age
By 2050 there will still be a projected 79.2 million Millennials.
Generation X became the “middle child” of generations.
Their ages spread out over 16 years compared to the 17 years of the Millennials
Knight Rider Kids
Though the oldest Gen Xer is now 50, they shouldn’t give up.
They can still become number two, if they try harder, or at least eat healthier and workout more often.
Actually, they can just wait until 2028 to outnumber the Boomers.
There will be 64.6 million Gen Xers and 63.7 million Boomers.
Gen X population will peak at 65.8 million in 2018.
Now back, to Baby Boomers.
They were all that.
The largest generation since the 1950s and 1960s having peaked at 78.8 million in 1999.
The Lone Ranger on Black and White TV
By mid-century, the Boomer population will dwindle to 16.6 million.
Talk about a boom, then a bust!
Let’s examine how the two huge generations will impact the rest of us.
Aging Boomers and coming-of-age Millennials will accelerate changes in the economy.
No question.
Housing Regrets
But, not everything is rosy or the same for both generations.
Both Baby Boomers and Millennials will increasingly feel squeezed financially.
Roughly 150 million Americans feel squeezed, so they’re not alone.
But, chances are they both account for most of the 150 million citizens.
Just compare the median ages of both generations as of 2015.
Baby Boomers, age 60.
Millennials, age 25.
The 25-year-old Millennials, having lived through the Great Recession, find themselves either unable or unwilling to spend.
While the 60-year-old Boomers (parents or grandparents of Millennials) have been playing savings catch-up.
Seared into their brains is a haunting future in which they outlive their next egg, not having saved enough money for retirement.
Nest Egg
Which may last as long as 35 more years.
Or, as one financial expert tells them,
“You’re just going to have to live with lower rates of return.”
Steps:
(6) Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.
(7) Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.
(17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year time frames. Will we fall into another recession? Absolutely. Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?
(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.
California doesn’t have a corner on the market for individuals and businesses seeking pristine natural quality-of-life communities with an open and innovative social environment.
Psychologists have found that midlife is typically a time when many of us take stock of our values and goals.
Part Three in a 4-part Series evaluating real estate and consumer predictions as generations transition throughout successive life stages.
If they follow the broad trend lines, they will retire in place.
Importance of Grandchildren
The community they now call home after their last corporate transfer.
Where their children and grandchildren call home.
Dent recommends checking out the best suburban and exurban communities on the edge of attractive cities in addition to the more compelling resorts and university towns.
If we look at the trends in which cities and geographical areas have attracted the most retirees in the last decade we can get a better clue as to where the growth will continue to accelerate as the pre-retirement and retirement age groups grow in the coming decade.
Mammoth Mountain Getaways
For this next part, remember what Mammoth realtor Paul Oster wrote – Dent’s track record makes him a better demographer than an economist.
Remember that on a 63-year lag for average retirement, baby boomers will be retiring in rising rates from 2000 – 2026.
After this boom ends, deflation is almost certain to ensue for at least a decade and possibly into the early 2020’s.
Resort Retirement Benefits
Dent said that means the cost of living, the price of real estate, and the interest rates should drop substantially.
This deflationary downturn will offer direct benefits to real estate owners and buyers.
Has the time come and gone – when Dent’s trends wither on the vine?
We only have to review Lake Tahoe and Mammoth Lake’s real estate markets to call into question the accuracy of Dent’s first trend.
Lake Tahoe Traditions
The first trend is a broad migration pattern towards exurbs and small towns, many of which will continue to hold most of their value through the downturn.
This third wave of migration – an exodus from the suburbs – will accelerate through the first half of the 21st century, continue long after this Deflationary Shakeout ends.
The second trend will be a strong and consistent rise in retirement home purchases.
Mountain Retirement and Second Homes
Baby boomers will drive the market for this kind of property from 2002 into around 2030.
A third long-term real estate trend to take advantage of after late 2008 is the rising demand for rental property in urban and suburban areas.
Why?
Apartments will be in relatively strong demand through about 2017 due partly to the aging of the echo baby boom generation.
Seems reasonable, and while we may have dodged the “Mother of All Depressions” he predicted instead with the Great Recession, Dent’s view on demand may be currently playing out.
Demand will be further strengthened by the effect of the depression era on individuals who are of an age to shop for starter homes, but who must delay this purchase until the economy improves.
Psychologists have found that midlife is typically a time when many of us take stock of our values and goals.
He ticks off several reasons.
We attain a certain level of affluence through the combination of high earnings and a sudden drop in necessary family expenses as children leave the nest.
What’s Important in Our Lives?
We confront our mortality, either by taking care of ill or elderly parents or by seeing the inevitable aging in ourselves.
For baby boomers and older Gen X-ers each reason can usher in a more positive ending.
Above all, retirement looms on the horizon as an expanse of freedom that many of us, working 8-to-5 jobs, have not known before.
All of these reasons compel us to pause, reflect, and consider how we are going to live the rest of our lives.
California doesn’t have a corner on the market for individuals and businesses seeking pristine natural quality-of-life communities with an open and innovative social environment.
While Dent believed California would grow, other communities in the West were forecasted to grow much faster.
And without paying a high price tag for a similar lifestyle.
Dent suggested these additions to your Western bucket list.
From Hollywood to Silicon Valley, along the coasts into Portland, Seattle and Vancouver, and inland to Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, we see the most innovative cities in America spawning most of the growth companies.
What do they have in common?
These businesses, primarily in the fields of high technology and entertainment, are the backbone of the new information economy.
If you’ve ever lived or traveled in the West, you know there is a clear difference in culture between the western states, the east coast, and the central areas of North America.
Steps:
(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.
An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.
As time marches on they’ll move the Baby Boomers aside as target real estate buyers of resort property …
Resort Vacation Home
Will the majority of retirement age baby boomers move to remote resort locations like Mammoth Lakes, Dillon, Colorado or in recreational areas like Lake Tahoe?
Part Two in a 4-part Series evaluating real estate and consumer predictions as generations transition throughout successive life stages.
For each of the following predictions more current forces may delay and extend the age ranges for the Millennial generation.
But first, what about the Gen X generation?
They “occupy” several life stage demographic profiles.
Recall that the Gen X cohort accounts for roughly 51 million who were born between 1964 and 1980.
By 2015 they range from between age 35 and 50 years old which stretches across
Active Midlife Couples
30-44 year old Singles and Midlife
35-54 year old Families
45+ year old Families and Empty Nest Couples.
They have or are just now reaching their“peak spending years,” between the ages 46 and 53. Dent correlates demographic age to real estate segments.
Spending on trade-up homes accelerates from age 35 and reaches a peak by around age 44.
As time marches on they’ll move the Baby Boomers aside as target real estate buyers of resort property …
Sales of vacation property begins to accelerate from age 46 and peaks around age 52 to 55.
The Baby Boom generation conformed except for those members caught by surprise during the Great Recession.
Investment in retirement property begins to accelerate from the late 50s and peaks in the mid-60s.
In 2014 the huge generation numbered 75.4 million.
Born after World War II between 1946 to 1964, their median age 60 years old anchored their range between 51 and 69 years old.
Having moved through all of the other life stage and age segments they now occupy
Retiring Baby Boomer Couples
55+ Baby Boomer Couples,
Empty Nests, and
65+ Couples and Seniors
In addition, Dent describes how broad geographical migration patterns significantly influence long-term real estate trends.
Certain areas of the country clearly and consistently have experienced faster growth than others.
For example in 2002 …
The Northeast and the Upper Midwest Plains states have generally been losing population; the Midwest has seen flat or modest growth; and the Southeast, Southwest and Northwest have all been growing substantially.
Will the majority of retirement age baby boomers move to remote resort locations like Mammoth Lakes, Dillon, Colorado or in recreational areas like Lake Tahoe?
(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.
An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.
Today you and I are in one of those periods that occur every 200 or 300 years when people don’t understand the world anymore, when the past is not sufficient to explain the future.
But, for those who successfully found good employment with a fresh start on a career path, even if their pay rises they’re reluctant to spend — or take a chance on a new job — so, don’t count on a broad positive impact on the economy just yet.
While the demographic trends probably aren’t as negative for growth, you should account for them and prepare to adjust in any long-term scenarios you construct.
The period after the 2008 financial crash turned out to be pretty decent for the U.S. economy.
And, that’s through the end of the decade
But with the Federal Reserve’s decision in December to begin raising short-term interest rates from near zero, it becomes more difficult to imagine longer-term rates declining significantly, barring a new recession or global shock. 
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