The Future’s Arriving Faster than You Think. Now What?

Here are just a few of the practical examples of blockchain technology.

Scientists at the University of Washington School of Medicine have developed an automated system that uses robots to produce human mini-organs from stem cells.

 

WIRED’S Predictions for Bots, Blockchains, Crispr, and More

“SOMETIMES THE FUTURE shows up so fast it hits us in the face, like a brick wall in a VR headset. Other times the miraculous promises of technology—the rearrange­ment of our very DNA, the blockchain-­enabled toppling of Facebook—are frustratingly slow to arrive. But either way, the future is coming, and we should be ready. In the following pages we lay out a series of predictions, starting with some changes that are immediately upon us. Then, looking down the road, we get ever-bolder in our prognostications, year by not-so-far-off year. —The Editors

  • Cyberattacks Will Hit a Power Grid Near You
  • Robots Will Roam Abandoned Big-Box Stores
  • We’ll Share Our Emotional State as Willingly as We Share Our Photos
  • We’ll Crispr the Hell Out of Things—but Not, at First, the Way You Think
  • Robotrucks Will Crisscross the Country
  • You’ll Go to Work in Virtual Reality
  • The Blockchain Will Rebuild the Internet as We Know It
    https://www.wired.com ILLUSTRATIONS BY SAMMY HARKHAM

3 Things We Need to Do to Revive Innovation and Entrepreneurship in America

1. Start The Low Hanging Fruit
Clearly, the backbone of any innovation economy is entrepreneurship. Yet by a number of metrics, startup activity in America has faltered.
2. Renew Our Commitment To Science And Technology
We tend to think that the best technology is built by entrepreneurs in a garage somewhere or, possibly, in a corporate lab. Yet the truth is that most technology starts with federally funded research that later gets commercialized by the private sector. That’s the engine that drives innovation forward.
3. Build An Innovation Ecosystem For Hard Tech
Yet we often forget that the Silicon Valley model was developed for a specific industry at a specific time and is not transferable to every business sector. These are partnerships between government, academia and the private sector that focus on specific industries, such as chemical processing and advanced fabrics and offer state and local governments the opportunity to build entrepreneurial ecosystems.” https://www.inc.com/ Greg Satell

Why Amazon and Jeff Bezos Are So Successful at Disruption

“No other organization in the world better embodies the power of audacious and continual disruption than Amazon. This is the company that, upon its founding by Jeff Bezos in 1994, took on publishers and booksellers around the world. Along the way, it forced many incumbents to disrupt their business models or turn off the lights. At the heart of everything Amazon does is a short and simple mission statement: “Our vision is to be Earth’s most customer-centric company; to build a place where people can come to find and discover anything they might want to buy online.” There is always the risk that Bezos and his team will lose focus in their never-ending quest for the perfect disruption. But for the time being, at least, Bezos has not only sustained his position as the master of business disruption but has also become the richest man on the planet. The company he founded 24 years ago is set to achieve $200 billion in revenue sometime this year, sustaining an annual compounded growth rate of 41 percent.” https://www.entrepreneur.com John F. Furth Image credit: Michael Tullberg | Getty Images

Four Ways Crowdsourcing Drives Health Care Innovation

“Here are four examples where crowdsourcing can help drive healthcare innovation.
1. Medical Research And Discovery
When faced with a numbers problem, crowdsourcing may be researchers’ best hope for speeding up scientific discovery.
2. Raise Capital To Jumpstart A New Venture
RedCrow believes that investors “can come together and collaborate and take advantage of the wisdom and the experience of the greater crowd.”
3. Inspire Entrepreneurial Thinking
The device captures and transmits CHF data to the cloud, providing medical professionals with continuous diagnostic data that streamlines the feedback process, improving health outcomes.
4. Identify The Most Important Unmet Medical Need
Given the urgency to innovate in health care, crowdsourcing is one way to tap people outside your organization who can bring fresh ideas and thinking and quite possibly expedite the path to your goal.” David Goldsmith, Chief Strategy Officer WEGO Health www.forbes.com Shutterstock

Robots can now grow human organs

“Scientists at the University of Washington School of Medicine have developed an automated system that uses robots to produce human mini-organs from stem cells. According to Science Daily, the ability to mass produce “organoids” promises to expand the use of mini-organs in basic research and drug discovery. “Ordinarily, just setting up an experiment of this magnitude would take a researcher all day, while the robot can do it in 20 minutes,” Freedman tells Science Daily. “On top of that, the robot doesn’t get tired and make mistakes. . . . There’s no question — for repetitive, tedious tasks like this, robots do a better job than humans.”
https://nypost.com/ Raquel Laneri Composite; Shutterstock; iStockphoto

30+ Real Examples Of Blockchain Technology In Practice

“While Bitcoin and cryptocurrency may have been the first widely known uses of blockchain technology, today, it’s far from the only one. In fact, blockchain is revolutionizing most every industry. Here are just a few of the practical examples of blockchain technology.

  • Entertainment: KickCity, B2Expand, Spotify, Guts.
  • Social Engagement: Matchpool
  • Retail: Warranteer, Blockpoint, Loyyal
  • Exotic Cars: Bitcar
  • Supply chains and logistics: IBM Blockchain, Food industry, Provenance, Blockverify, OriginTrail, De Beers
  • Insurance: Accenture, Proof of insurance
  • Healthcare: MedicalChain, MedRec, Nano Vision, Gem, SimplyVital Health
  • Real Estate: BitProperty, Deedcoin, Ubiquity,
  • Charity: BitGive, AidCoin, Utopi
  • Financial Services: Bitcoin Atom, Securrency, Ripple, ABRA, Aeternity, Smart Valor, Circle”
    https://www.forbes.com Bernard Marr Adobe Stock

Plastic Bag Found at the Bottom of World’s Deepest Ocean Trench

“The Mariana Trench—the deepest point in the ocean—extends nearly 36,000 feet down in a remote part of the Pacific Ocean. But if you thought the trench could escape the global onslaught of plastics pollution, you would be wrong. A recent study revealed that a plastic bag, like the kind given away at grocery stores, is now the deepest known piece of plastic trash, found at a depth of 36,000 feet inside the Mariana Trench. Scientists found it by looking through the Deep-Sea Debris Database, a collection of photos and videos taken from 5,010 dives over the past 30 years that was recently made public.” https://news.nationalgeographic.com Sarah Gibbens A plastic bag floats through Manila Bay in the Philippines. PHOTOGRAPH BY RANDY OLSON, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC

We Depend on Plastic. Now We’re Drowning in It.

“If plastic had been invented when the Pilgrims sailed from Plymouth, England, to North America—and the Mayflower had been stocked with bottled water and plastic-wrapped snacks—their plastic trash would likely still be around, four centuries later. If the Pilgrims had been like many people today and simply tossed their empty bottles and wrappers over the side, Atlantic waves and sunlight would have worn all that plastic into tiny bits. And those bits might still be floating around the world’s oceans today, sponging up toxins to add to the ones already in them, waiting to be eaten by some hapless fish or oyster, and ultimately perhaps by one of us.” Laura Parker Photographs by Randy Olson

Steps:

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Computing and the Future of Work

It will likely take a decade or so until some AI technologies become the norm.

Enterprise teams are content to chew through budgets on the wrong things because they worry they won’t receive the same monies the next year if they don’t.

 

3 Signs Your Innovation Budget Needs a New Approach.

Entrepreneurs and investors operate leanly. They know big-bang innovation rarely ever works. Instead, they take small, smart steps toward a solution without worrying about nitty-gritty features. In contrast, enterprise teams are content to chew through budgets on the wrong things because they worry they won’t receive the same monies the next year if they don’t. Talk about wasteful!  See your product or service from a scrappy, entrepreneurial viewpoint. Don’t waste time on that obscure API or flashy layout. If users want it, they’ll tell you during the prototyping phase. Spend where your product provides value, and innovation will follow. Far too many firms don’t connect the dots between their budgetary input and innovation output. It’s not as simple as spending more money. The truth is, it’s about agile planning, frequent failure, and regular reallocation of resources. The sooner your innovation budget accounts for those things, the better your balance sheet will look.”  BUSINESS.COM Emerson Taymor Image credit: lOvE lOvE/Shutterstock

Why Innovation Tends to Bypass Economics.

Many of these problems can be traced back to a basic economic distinction: the difference between invention and innovation. Invention is defined as the discovery of a new exciting idea, product or approach. Innovation means applying that idea through changes in operating models and mindsets. Too many areas today contain the invention but not the innovation. This harmful decoupling is driven by a combination of biases,  blind spots and inertia (knowing you need to do something different but ending up doing more of the same). In too many cases, the flaw has less to do with the need to come up with a brilliant idea, and more a matter of embracing it and adapting accordingly. That requires being curious, open-minded, willing to listen, open to experimentation, creating safe zones for candid discussions and learning from failure. Economics has persistently failed to address this fundamental — and solvable — problem. The gaps between inventions and innovations have led to too many foregone welfare-enhancing opportunities for individuals, companies, governments and society.” newsmax.com Mohamed El-Erian Bloomberg View One Photo | Dreamstime.com

This Is How to Get Started With AI When the Only Thing You Know Is the Acronym.

Autonomous AI, however, is capable of learning certain tasks that require complex decisions to be made. Autonomous AI often receives the most attention because it makes innovations like self-driving cars possible, but at least in the short term, the business world might have more use for AI’s organizational and triage capabilities. Whatever you choose to do with AI, don’t delay. “AI is going to revolutionize the world more than any other tech advancement of the past 30 years,” Mark Cuban remarked at the recent Upfront Summit in Los Angeles. Like the internet, AI will produce a rich-get-richer environment, and those who get a head start are going to run the table.” So far, the following areas of AI show particular business promise: 1. Predictive analytics. 2. Computer vision. 3. Natural language processing.entrepreneur.com Sourav Dey Image credit: Photographer is my life | Getty Images

AI and the Future of Work.

It will likely take a decade or so until some AI technologies become the norm. While that provides plenty of lead time for the transition, few companies are taking action now to train their workers. Another little-noticed problem is that the AI systems themselves are being created with data and algorithms that don’t reflect the diverse American society. Accenture research shows business leaders don’t think that their workers are ready for AI. But only 3% of those leaders were reinvesting in training. At a Davos meeting held by Accenture, Fei-Fei Li, an associate professor at Stanford University and director of the school’s AI lab, suggested using AI to retrain workers. “I think there’s a really exciting possibility that machine learning itself would help us to learn in more effective ways and to re-skill workers in more effective ways,” she said. ‘And I personally would like to see more investment and thought going into that aspect.‘” wired.com/wiredinsider/  WIRED Brand Lab for Accenture. GETTY IMAGES

A Simple Tool to Start Making Decisions with the Help of AI.

Clarifying these seven factors for each critical decision throughout your organization will help you get started on identifying opportunities for AIs to either reduce costs or enhance performance. Here we discussed a decision associated with a specific situation. To get started with AI, your challenge is to identify the key decisions in your organization where the outcome hinges on uncertainty. Filling out the AI Canvas won’t tell you whether you should make your own AI or buy one from a vendor, but it will help you clarify what the AI will contribute (the prediction), how it will interface with humans (judgment), how it will be used to influence decisions (action), how you will measure success (outcome), and the types of data that will be required to train, operate, and improve the AI.hbr.org Ajay AgrawalJoshua GansAvi Goldfarb MARTIN HOLSTE/EYEEM/ GETTY IMAGES

Physicists Just Discovered an Entirely New Type of Superconductivity: No one thought this was possible in solid materials.

One of the ultimate goals of modern physics is to unlock the power of superconductivity, where electricity flows with zero resistance at room temperature. What they found was odd – as the material warmed up from absolute zero, the amount that a magnetic field could penetrate the material increased linearly instead of exponentially, which is what is normally seen with superconductors. After running a series of measurements and calculations, the researched concluded that the best explanation for what was going on was that the electrons must have been disguised as particles with higher spin – something that wasn’t even considered as a possibility for a superconductor before. While this new type of superconductivity still requires incredibly cold temperatures for now, the discovery gives the entire field a whole new direction.sciencealert.com FIONA MACDONALD (Emily Edwards, University of Maryland)

Australian Scientists Just Solved One Of The Biggest Quantum Computing Challenges Using Material Found In DVDs.

In quantum technology, information is carried on quibits, single photons. For the quibits to be actually useful in quantum technologies, though, they need to be produced by Single Photon Emitters that work at room temperature (it’s just practical, really) and at telecom wavelength (the most efficient way to transfer information via optical fibres) all at once. It wasn’t easy, but they’ve done it. Those plucky Australian Scientists have gone and done it. And they did it using a material found in DVDs.” www.gizmodo.com.au  Rae Johnston Image: NASA

Feynman 100.

”’Dick Feynman relished the pleasure of finding things out, and he had a remarkable knack for conveying the excitement of science to a general audience,’ says John P. Preskill, Richard P. Feynman Professor of Theoretical Physics at Caltech. ‘We hope this event will capture some of that boundless curiosity and sense of fun that made Feynman such a treasured colleague.’ The event will be divided into two days, with an evening celebration on Friday, May 11, and a scientific symposium during the day on Saturday, May 12.http://m.caltech.edu/news/remembering-richard-feynman-81875 Credit: Caltech Archives  Whitney Clavin

Einstein and the Quantum.

The notion of an underlying quantum probability proved to be too much for Einstein (and Schrödinger as well), who would now turn his back on the new quantum mechanics forever to pursue his dream of a causal unified field theory. In the end, Einstein would never realize this final dream, and the “strangeness” of quantum mechanics continues with us today.https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/einstein-and-the-quantum  Credit: Getty Images Scott Bembenek.

Steps:

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

Driving Radical and Incremental Innovation

This chart shows every major technological innovation in the last 150 years — and how they have changed the way we work.

I had been struck by how the artificial intelligence (AI) seemed to use the same principles many of these successful Silicon Valley tech giants were using to induce innovation

 

Breakthrough Technologies. 150 Years of Innovation. Emerging Intelligent Machines. Squeezing Water Out of Desert Air. Future of Mobility. Digital Innovation Frameworks. AI and Radical Innovation. Enjoy!

10 Breakthrough Technologies 2018

Artificial Embryo

What we’re really looking for is a technology, or perhaps even a collection of technologies, that will have a profound effect on our lives. 3-D Metal Printing, Artificial Embryos, Sensing City, AI for Everybody, Dueling Neural Networks, Babel-Fish Earbuds, Zero-Carbon Natural Gas, Perfect Online Privacy, Genetic Fortune Telling, Materials’ Quantum Leap.” MIT Technology Review  photo credit UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE technologyreview.com/lists 

This chart shows every major technological innovation in the last 150 years — and how they have changed the way we work.

Steve Jobs with iPhone Innovation

In its recent Equity Gilt Study, which is a massive annual report by Barclays chronicling the bank’s thoughts on important topics in finance and economics, the bank focused heavily on new technologies and particularly on cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence. Included in the report was a breakdown of how productivity and output have developed over the course of the last century and a half, crossed with the major innovations that have come in that time.” Will Martin. REUTERS/Alessia Pierdomenico. businessinsider.com

Unleashing The Power Of An Innovative Mind.

With the advent of latest technologies of Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, rapid prototyping, artificial intelligence and big data analysis, humans worldwide are creating thousands of innovations in the form of smart machines. And these intelligent machines are not only beginning to perform human tactical tasks more efficiently but also are being trained to operate with human intelligence. However, humans have a unique power, the power of thinking, the power of innovation: encompassing intellectual, emotional and spiritual intelligence.” Dr Ayesha Chaudhary. Photo Credit : ShutterStock  http://businessworld.in  

Researchers develop device that extracts water from desert air.

Researchers at MIT and UC Berkeley have developed and now tested a device that can extract water out of the air even in the driest of climates. The team proposed the device in a Science article last year and now they’ve improved the design and tried it out in Tempe, Arizona. While there are a few ways to pull water out of the air, most come with significant limitations. They usually require humidities upwards of 50 percent and some need a lot of energy input to make them work. The research team’s latest design, however, works passively, without the need for energy input, and can work in places with humidity as low as 10 percent.” Mallory Locklear. Kim et al. engadget.com 

Bill Gates Thinks These 6 Innovations Could Change the World.

(Photo by Yana Paskova/Getty Images)

Better Vaccine Storage. Gene Editing. Solar Fuel. mRNA Vaccines. Improved Drug Delivery. Artificial Intelligence. Of all the innovations on this list, this one seems like the surest bet to transform the way we live. Although AI will create new challenges that we need to address – including how to retrain workers who lose their jobs to automation – I think it will make our lives more productive, more efficient, and easier overall.” Bill Gates. time.com 

Disruption vs. Innovation: Defining Success.

Innovation or rapid evolutionary innovation, as I define it, is turning your dreams into reality, or manifesting what you envision. Disruptive companies are those whose innovations or innovative processes completely change the market they serve. They might use an innovation to accomplish their goals, but not all innovations are disruptive. In other words, not all innovations cause a business or market to rapidly evolve. I firmly believe that all businesses must evolve over time in order to stay competitive in the marketplace, and that has shown to be true when it comes to disruption. Companies need appreciable time for their services to evolve and react to the needs of the market.” David Meltzer. Image credit: Natali_Mis | Getty Images entrepreneur.com

Forces of Change: The Future of Mobility.

Deloitte Insights

The result is the emergence of a new ecosystem of mobility that could offer faster, cheaper, cleaner, safer, more efficient, and more customized travel. Though there is some uncertainty, in particular about the speed of this transition, a fundamental shift is prompting a move away from personally owned, driver-operated vehicles and toward a future mobility system centered around (but not exclusively composed of) driverless vehicles and shared mobility.” Deloitte Insights theatlantic.com

2018 framework to understand digital innovation.

The challenge with distributed teams and tools, and with architectures that rely on distributed solutions more broadly, is managing the complexity of having so many moving parts. There is a hidden cost to such flexibility: it requires a lot of organizational coordination and integration. This can be confusing and costly for organizations and teams that lack the experience or commitment to put the right process in place. This is especially through for companies that start their digital transformation journey. New techniques will be developed in the near future, to ‘orchestrate’ the entire innovation process, from idea to shippable product, across all the different stakeholders. We’re already starting to see 2 types of orchestration capabilities emerge.” Andries De Vos. hackernoon.com 

A Secret Formula For Radical Innovation: Lessons From Silicon Valley.

I had been struck by how the artificial intelligence (AI) seemed to use the same principles many of these successful Silicon Valley tech giants were using to induce innovation—self-organization, simple rules, a generalist approach, diversity of input, speed of execution, and profuse experimentation (I gave a TEDx talk on this topic and wrote an article about it). I asked him if his company implemented these principles by design or coincidence. Employees must self-organize meaning they cannot be micromanaged, rather should be given broad boundaries using simple rules – if A happens, do B. In the process, they learn from trial and error and radical innovation happens when these errors accumulate and break through a critical point.” Sunnie Giles. Shutterstock forbes.com 

IBM has created a computer smaller than a grain of salt.

Specifically, this computer will be a data source for blockchain applications. It’s intended to help track the shipment of goods and detect theft, fraud, and non-compliance. It can also do basic AI tasks, such as sorting the data it’s given. According to IBM, this is only the beginning. “Within the next five years, cryptographic anchors — such as ink dots or tiny computers smaller than a grain of salt — will be embedded in everyday objects and devices,” says IBM head of research Arvind Krishna. If he’s correct, we’ll see way more of these tiny systems in objects and devices in the years to come.” Monica Chin. Image IBM mashable.com

Steps:

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

When Will Your Industry Get Turned Upside Down?

Lessons from one era often cannot be applied to the next. In the 50s and 60s, IBM’s singular focus and investment proved decisive.

 
The only way to defend ourselves is to build codes that even the most powerful machines conceivable cannot crack.

 

When can an era’s key success factors be applied to the next?  Why do so many digital transformation initiatives fail? And what about block chain?  Is your industry about to fall prey to its disruption?

Disruption. Chaos. Innovation. Cancer. Graphene. Quantum.  A quick update.

Disruption

Why So Many High-Profile Digital Transformations Fail.

“With innovative information technology, however, executives sometimes lose their rational decision approaches. Certainly it’s true that in times of radical technological change there’s a lot of figuring out to do.  Executives have to understand what new technologies can do, and understand their impact on markets, products/services, and distribution channels.  These decisions are inevitably influenced by hype from vendors and the media, expensive consultants offering “thought leadership” insights, many high profile experiments, and a few exciting success stories that keep people wanting more. A charismatic CIO or Chief Digital Officer may make it even harder to be level-headed in those heady times.” Thomas H. Davenport George Westerman Harvard Business Review

9 Industries That Will Soon Be Disrupted By Blockchain.

“As new technologies are developed, affected industries are forced to adapt or be replaced. The newest technology that is quickly becoming the next major disruption is blockchain technology.  Blockchain is a digital ledger system used to securely record transactions. It is poised to impact the way business is done across the globe. Here are nine prominent industries that are slated to be overhauled by blockchain technology in the near future. 1. The Banking Industry 2. The Real Estate Industry 3. The Healthcare Industry 4. The Legal Industry 5. The Cryptocurrency Exchange Industry 6. Politics 7. The Startup Industry 8. The Video Industry 9. The Education Industry.” John White CREDIT: Getty Images

‘Asking Really Big and Bold Questions.’ Experts Debate the Power of Design to Disrupt.


Moderator: Clay Chandler, Brainstorm Design
Photograph by Stefen Chow/Fortune

“Big data and rapid technological development pose a myriad of challenges to giant firms to start-ups alike—and design can help surmount them through its ability to disrupt. That was the conclusion of the Disruption x Design panel concluded on Wednesday at Brainstorm Design, the Fortune, Time and Wallpaper* conference held in Singapore. “For me, start-ups equal disruption,” says Charles Hayes, a partner and executive managing director of innovation consultancy firm IDEO in Asia, who has been based in Shanghai for the last nine years. “This is a world where you have young leaders who don’t necessarily have a deep expertise in a field, but are asking really big and bold questions,” says Hayes.” CASEY QUACKENBUSH Stefen Chow/Fortune

Chaos

Chaos Theory, The Butterfly Effect, And The Computer Glitch That Started It All. 

“Yet if you do have enough wind velocity information, combined with an array of readings from barometers, thermometers, and such, you might ask a weatherman, particularly a trained meteorologist with access to state-of-the-art computers and software, to make a sound forecast. We often plan our outdoor activities these days with the help of newscasts, websites, apps, and voice assistants that provide reasonable forecasts hours or days in advance. It is rather amazing that meteorology can perform such a feat. Lorenz not only discovered chaos, he also identified its key mechanism. When he graphed his data along several axes, he noted the strange property that iterating (plotting the trajectory over time) any two nearby points resulted in their separation. The gap would grow greater and greater with each iteration until the mathematical “offspring” of the two points would be so widely separated that they be in completely different regions of the cloud of information.” Paul Halpern, Forbes. Hellisp of Wikimedia Commons / Created by XaosBits using Mathematica and POV-Ray

Innovation

Three Steps To Developing An Innovative Instinct — And The Questions To Ask Yourself To Get There.

“My core innovation principles are very simple no matter if I share it with my students, my employees, or my kids,” added Dror. “Have more dreams than achievements. Chase your dreams as fast as you can and fail fast if needed, but always, always ask ‘WHY?’.” Take a step back from what you do, and reflect on how you do it. Analyze the tasks and the roles you perform. Ask yourself a few questions.” Jay Sullivan , Forbes, Shutterstock

4 Things You Need To Do To Win In The New Era Of Innovation.

“Lessons from one era often cannot be applied to the next. In the 50s and 60s, IBM’s singular focus and investment proved decisive. A generation later, agility and speed to market became core competitive attributes. Today, were entering a new era of innovation in which the basis of competition will shift from disruptive to fundamental technologies. This will become even more true in the new era of innovation, when we struggle to leverage technologies that we do not fully understand. Firms that want to be on the cutting edge are actively participating in a wide range of collaboration platforms, from manufacturing hubs to open source communities. So in this new era, we will find it even more essential to focus on networks rather than nodes. The best way to become a dominant player will be to become an essential partner.” Greg Satell inc.com Getty Images

Cancer

Army of Nanorobots Successfully Strangles Cancerous Tumors.

“The precision of the nanorobots, which is what makes their potential for safe cancer treatment so great, is due to their meticulously crafted structure. The drug-holding “package” is made up of DNA sheets, measuring 60 by 90 nanometers, that wrap around thrombin molecules. On the outside of the folded sheets are molecules that zero in on nucleolin, a protein that’s present in the lining of blood vessels associated with growing tumors. These nanorobots show great promise, but they aren’t ready for humans yet. To get there, the researchers are seeking out clinical partners to further develop this treatment pathway. Still, the fact that it seems to work in mice and pigs makes it likely that nanorobots like these will be available as cancer treatments within our lifetimes.” Peter Hess inverse.com

Graphene

Graphene film makes dirty water drinkable in a single step.

“Now, researchers have developed a process that can purify water, no matter how dirty it is, in a single step. Scientists from Australian research organization CSIRO have created a filtration technique using a graphene film with microscopic nano-channels that lets water pass through, but stops pollutants. The process, called “Graphair”, is so effective that water samples from Sydney Harbor were safe to drink after being treated. And while the film hails from graphene, Graphair is comparatively cheaper, faster and more environmentally-friendly to make, as its primary component is renewable soybean oil, which also helps maximise the efficiency of the purifying technique’s filter counterpart”. Rachel England, Engadget CSIRO

It turns out graphene has been deceiving us this whole time.

“In a paper published to the journal Carbon, the team eventually discovered that trace quantities of manganese contamination from the original graphite or reactants actually hide within the graphene lattice. When the graphene enters the right conditions – such as in a fuel cell – those minute metal bits activate the ORR. The reason that analysis was unable to discover this until now is because the contrast between carbon and manganese atoms is so slight that the tools used to analyse them weren’t sensitive enough.” Colm Gorey Image: Angel Soler Gollonet/Shutterstock

Quantum

Intel just put a quantum computer on a silicon chip.

“The researchers used a special type of qubit (the quantum version of a classical computer’s bits) called spin qubits to run two different quantum algorithms on a silicon chip. Other quantum systems, like Intel’s breakthrough 49-qubit computer, rely on superconductive materials and near perfect-zero temperatures. A spin qubit doesn’t require either, it’s an electron that’s been agitated by microwave pulses. While other quantum systems are closer to being useful, the idea here wasn’t to create a better computer but one that would work with existing infrastructure. Intel, it’s worth mentioning, is the world leader in silicon chip sales.” TNW · Tristan Greene

Quantum Theory Bends The Limits of Physics, Showing Two-Way Signaling May Be Possible.

“Consider the simplest scenario, where two players, Alice and Bob, want to exchange a simple bit of information, i.e. either 0 or 1,” Dakić explained to Lisa Zyga at Phys.org. “They encode their respective bits or messages at the same time, directly into the superposition state of a quantum particle. Once the information is encoded, the partners send their parts of quantum particle towards each other.” What’s then needed is some kind of smart device and mechanism between our two players, which can route the parts of the particle depending on its contents. “For example, if the particle ends up with Alice, she would know that Bob’s bit was just opposite from her bit, and vice versa,” says Dakić. Alice and Bob have therefore sent and received a message in the same time as it would take a message to pass from one to the other under a classical physics system.” DAVID NIELD, ScienceAlert (ktsimage/iStock)

Unbreakable: The race to protect our secrets from quantum hacks.

“The danger lies in the fact that, before long, someone will build a quantum computer that can crack our most powerful encryption methods – the mathematical tricks that turn data into unreadable secret code to hide it from prying eyes. The only way to defend ourselves is to build codes that even the most powerful machines conceivable cannot crack. Which is exactly why some of the world’s smartest mathematicians have been attempting to invent a whole new class of encryption algorithms. Having submitted their best designs to the post-quantum cryptography group at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in Maryland, scores of teams are now engaged in a global race to identify the most secure by trying everything they can think of to crack each other’s codes. If we find an algorithm that survives every attack, it will emerge as the 21st-century’s gold-standard digital padlock.” Michael Brooks. newscientist.com Raymond Biesinger

Google thinks it’s close to “quantum supremacy.”

“It’s not the number of qubits; it’s what you do with them that counts. Here’s what that really means. – Though there are some potentially promising applications, such as precisely designing molecules (see “10 Breakthrough Technologies 2018”), classical machines are still going to be better, faster, and far more economical at solving most problems. “Using a quantum computer would be like chartering a jumbo jet to cross the road,” says Oxford University’s Benjamin. He suggests that rather than “quantum supremacy,” we should be talking about attaining “quantum inimitability”—in other words, specific tasks that only quantum computers can do. Other researchers have suggested names like “quantum advantage” or “quantum ascendancy.” Martin Giles and Will Knight MIT Technology Review GOOGLE

Steps:

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

Forces of Change and Disruption

Silicon Valley continues to dominate the VC landscape. But its grip is slipping.

The result is the emergence of a new ecosystem of mobility that could offer faster, cheaper, cleaner, safer, more efficient, and more customized travel.

Innovation

How Likely Is Your Industry to Be Disrupted? Harvard Business Review. Disruptive Innovation. This 2×2 Matrix Will Tell You.  Industry disruption, as Accenture research has found, is reasonably predictable. And with wisdom about its predictability comes opportunity. To help business leaders better understand industry disruption, we developed an index that measures an industry’s current level of disruption as well as its susceptibility to future disruption. JORG GREUEL/GETTY IMAGES View on hbr.org

The New World of Innovation-as-a-Service. Entrepreneur. Capturing innovation from “the crowd” (as in crowdsourcing) is now streamlined enough to become a part of any company’s survival kit.  But here is a truism that seems impervious to all this technological disruption: “You can’t capture lightning in a bottle.” We generally understand this to mean that genius can’t be shackled and turned into a process. Brilliant ideas will happen on their own, not pulled from the mind under duress. Yet there is a growing community of entrepreneurs and academics who think that genius can be distilled into a process. What if lightning could be captured in a bottle? What if the exasperating pursuit of breakthrough ideas and technologies could be distilled into the push of a button or an act as simple as scrolling through an app like Instagram?

Convergence

Forces of change: The future of mobility. Deloitte Insights. THE entire way people and goods travel from point A to point B is changing, driven by a series of converging technological and social trends: the rapid growth of carsharing and ridesharing; the increasing viability of electric and alternative powertrains; new, lightweight materials; and the growth of connected and, ultimately, autonomous vehicles. The result is the emergence of a new ecosystem of mobility that could offer faster, cheaper, cleaner, safer, more efficient, and more customized travel. www2.deloitte.com

Funding

Here’s Where Startups in the U.S. Are Getting the Most VC Funding. Bloomberg. Silicon Valley continues to dominate the VC landscape. But its grip is slipping. Companies in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan area collected $19.7 billion last year, 12 percent less than in 2015.

 

Brain

To Advance Artificial Intelligence, Reverse-Engineer the Brain. Wired. YOUR THREE-POUND BRAIN runs on just 20 watts of power—barely enough to light a dim bulb. Yet the machine behind our eyes has built civilizations from scratch, explored the stars, and pondered our existence. In contrast, IBM’s Watson, a supercomputer that runs on 20,000 watts, can outperform humans at calculation and Jeopardy! but is still no match for human intelligence. GETTY IMAGES

Researchers Find Missing Link to Make Computers That Mimic the Brain. Inverse. The key to a new era of computer. In a paper published in Science Advances on Friday, researchers from the National Institute of Standards and Technology in Colorado describe how they built what they called a “superconducting synapse.” Biological synapses are the junction between nerves where chemical signals are transmitted from the brain throughout the body. NIST’s synapse can do everything its organic counterpart can do, but better.

Quantum

Here’s why 100 qubit quantum computers could change everything. The Next Web. One of the biggest barriers to advancing quantum computer hardware is dealing with all the noise generated by those qubits, they’re hyperactive compared to regular bits, so it’s hard to figure out what’s going on with them. But a series of advancements in error-correction and noise-supression have recently paved the way forward. And, if history is any indicator, we can expect a usable 100 qubit processor as early as this year. Credit: Guilherme Yagui

Physicists Create New Form Of Light. MSN / Newsweek. For the first time, scientists have watched groups of three photons interacting and effectively producing a new form of light. In results published in Science, researchers suggest that this new light could be used to perform highly complex, incredibly fast quantum computations. This research is the latest step towards a long-fabled quantum computer, an ultra-powerful machine that could solve problems beyond the realm of traditional computers. Your desktop PC would, for example, struggle to solve the question: “If a salesman has lots of places to visit, what is the quickest route?”

Enzymes

NEW ISRAELI TECHNOLOGY REPLACES SURGEON’S KNIFE WITH NO-CUT ALTERNATIVE. Jerusalem Post. People who have to undergo surgery but fear the scalpel will have a less-frightening alternative, the enzymatic “blade.” Researchers at the Wolfson Faculty of Chemical Engineering at Haifa’s Technion-Israel Institute of Technology have developed a device that replaces the surgeon’s knife with natural biological materials. The research was conducted by Prof. Avi Schroeder, a nanotechnology expert who is head of the targeted drugs laboratory and personalized medicine technologies at the faculty. The “blade” is based on the intelligent use of enzymes – biological molecules by which the body restores itself – as well as nanoparticles and technology for controlled release of drugs.

Steps:

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

Appreciation

Why swim upstream, if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction, right?”

Using economic cycles and bubbles, demographic shifts and a way of sizing up quality-of-life communities to live and invest in.

 

An excerpt from Book Two in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you make more money from a lifestyle businesses you’re truly passionate about.

Peak around the corner.

About the time of my own mid-life crisis I discovered the author Harry Dent.

Bubbles Bursting

He introduced me to economic cycles and bubbles, demographic shifts and a way of sizing up quality-of-life communities to live and invest in.

Any Poehler’s Leslie Character

Amy Poehler’s fictitious Pawnee, Indiana didn’t grow on me until season five when neighboring Eagleton, an ultra-affluent town, was written into the script.

In the sixth season the town of Eagleton, involved in a longstanding rivalry with Pawnee, goes into bankruptcy and is absorbed by Pawnee.

Fictitious Pawnee, Indiana

An effort spearheaded by Leslie after she sees no other way to save the town.

Having lived in a small Indiana college town on a bluff overlooking the Ohio River for four years and, then in another rural college town for my masters degree, I sought higher quality-of-life choices in a region that wasn’t so topographically flat.

But where?

  • And what if I discover after I move that I don’t like it?
  • What do I need to know ahead of time?
  • What if I chose a new Eagleton somewhere else and it files bankruptcy?
  • That can’t be good – except for Amy Poehler, right?
  • Nearly anybody can forecast the future.

How do you know which ones will come true?

I set up “The Journal of 2020 Foresight” after researching the top 100 trends and predictions from a variety of technical, economic, social and political sources.

And, knowledge labs to monitor key indicators in 5-year timelines –

  • 2003 to 2008,
  • 2009 to 2014 and
  • 2015 to 2020.

Why swim upstream, if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction, right?

The first knowledge lab, conducted during the 5-year timeline between 2003 to 2008.

Top Forces, Trends and Predictions

We began tracking some of Dent’s forecasts, especially the following four out of our original 100:

“4 – Basic innovation in communication technologies is allowing more people to relocate their homes to small towns and exurbs, and telecommute to business. 

3 – The baby boomers are moving into their vacation-home-buying years, which, in combination with the first trend, will stimulate demand for property in attractive resort towns. 

2 – The echo baby-boom generation is now moving into its household formation years, which will stimulate demand for apartments and rental property in the cities, and has already caused commercial property in these areas to appreciate, 

1 – There is a broad geographic migration towards areas of the country with warmer climates. You can expect the first three trends to be accentuated in the southwestern United States. “

Back to Harry Dent’s economic cycles and bubble forecasts.

He included a bubble wildcard as a fifth forecast.

The mother-of-all depressions, arriving sometime in the 2009 to 2015 time horizon.

Which presented itself as the mother-of-all Great Recessions.

More on that later.

The Warm Migration Trends
  • But, let’s say you decided to investigate opportunities triggered by the warm climate migration?
  • How do you explore the possibilities?
  • How do you go about it?

Dent borrowed from innovation, growth, and maturity product lifecycle curves to describe the potential for community growth and real estate appreciation.

S-Curve of Growth

You might say he spoke my language coming from my career in high technology.

  • Innovation – .1%, 1% to 9%.   
  • Growth – 10% breakout to 25% and from 50% to 75% and 
  • Maturity then to 90% – 99% percentiles.

What if the lifecycle model could be applied to resorts – estimating investment appreciation and community growth?

How does that work?

“The time it takes for an idea to move from a .1% idea to a 1% prototype, and finally to a 10% niche in the marketplace (Innovation), is roughly the same amount of time it takes for that niche to accelerate up the curvilinear curve of market acceptance through 50% to 90% (Growth).”

In the innovation stage, the risk is high and the potential reward could be astronomical.

If you found a small pristine mountain community at this stage and moved or invested in a vacation home on a lake, you may see your small down payment and mortgage pay off handsomely decades later.

Or not.

  • No guarantees.
  • Buy low, sell high.
  • As an investor, you’d want to find that goldilocks moment.

You wouldn’t want to invest too soon and wait forever, but definitely not too late when it is way too expensive to buy.

Pick sometime in the early growth stage but before the late growth phase turned into maturity.

When everyone else has heard of the premier destination.

As the mix of community residents begins to shift from High Country Eagles to Wireless Resorters.

You might find Pawnee attractive, but you probably missed the golden opportunity to move to Eagleton.

And by “season six” you’d be glad you did.

In priority order for finding the first three driving trends in one place – broad communications, Baby Boomer vacation-home buyers and echo-boom (Gen-Y, Millennials) entering the rental market, he lists:

  • Resort Towns
  • Small College and University Towns
  • Classic Towns
  • Revitalized Factory Towns
  • Exurbs
  • Suburban Villages
  • Emerging New Cities
  • Large-Growth Cities
  • Urban Villages

What if you’ve already built your mobile knowledge company, “Mobile KnowCo” and weren’t bound by your current fixed location?

How would you know if you found a town to fit your needs?

On your next vacation Harry Dent said to keep your eyes open for:

  • “A new look that includes intelligent town planning for increased human interaction; and abundant open space; 
  • flexibility in home design; 
  • planning for safety; shared facilities; and high-tech communications infrastructure.”

With those criteria in mind, we initiated coverage of “Resort Towns” in western United States like…

And, continued to aggregate lists of “Best Places” that fit Dent’s other eight categories of towns and cities.

Southwest Region from Wikitravel

From those thousands, we focused on and curated only those from six western and island regions:

  • Hawaii and other Tropical Regions;
  • Texas Regions;
  • Southwest Region (Arizona, Nevada, Utah and New Mexico);
  • Pacific Northwest Region (Washington and Oregon);
  • California Regions; and of course my favorite
  • Rocky Mountain Region (Colorado, Montana, Idaho and Wyoming).

But guess what?

All vacation destinations aren’t equally attractive and the reasons why aren’t obvious until you dig in and find out for yourself.

So, the only real question becomes, which one is right for you?

Especially if you longed for a fresh start.

Or were forced to take one.

(22) Selectively evaluate the best quality-of-life communities to live in and weigh the tradeoffs of risk and rewards for accruing real estate appreciation along a progression of rural and small towns that meet what your pocket books can afford.

Emerging Trends in Innovation and Future Jobs

Great innovators are able to see things others can’t because they function as knowledge brokers.

Preparing for Growth Industries of the Future
Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

 

Sea Levels Are Already Rising. What’s Next?

Florida’s Need for Sea Walls

The vast majority of south Florida is less than six feet above high tide. That risk is exacerbated by the fact that it’s on a hurricane track, so you get these storm pulses that come through every year. In Florida, you also have a geology of porous limestone that makes it difficult to build sea walls around places like Miami and Miami Beach because the water will just come through underneath and flood from below. In the Netherlands they’ve built the dikes to keep the water out. In New Orleans, which was flooded severely during Hurricane Katrina, they have also built big dikes. National Geographic.

Can Science Explain the Human Mind?

Can science explain everything related to our beings

Importantly, these findings don’t tell us about what science can and can’t explain. They tell us about people’s beliefs about what science can and can’t explain. But the implications are pretty intriguing. People don’t seem to regard the complexity of a natural phenomenon as a critical barrier to scientific progress. Instead, those phenomena that involve the unique characteristics of the reflective mind — such as introspection and conscious will — are the ones that are taken to present a real obstacle for science. NPR Cosmos & Culture

What is a blockchain?

Blockchain digital illuminated shape. Big data node base concept. 3d rendering illustration

We appear to be cresting the “peak of inflated expectations” on the famous Gartner hype cycle when it comes to the blockchain in late 2017, so it’s hard to know right now which proposed applications will stick and which will prove impractical over time. Certainly cryptocurrencies aren’t going anywhere unless there is a massive shift in U.S. government policy, and the vendor-supplier idea of a blockchain being pushed by cloud providers makes sense. Geek Wire.

Apple shows off self-driving tech breakthrough in obstacle detection.

Apple Self-Driving Breakthrough

A paper published last week by Yin Zhou and Oncel Tuzel, who are AI and machine learning researchers at the company, represents one of the first major breakthroughs we’ve seen from Apple’s self-driving project. And although it hasn’t been tested in the real world, it already seems like a notable development that could make rivals sit up and take notice. The Next Web.

5 Trends At The LA Auto Show That May Change How We Move.

Auto Trends

“Lincoln and Volvo’s moves to new vehicle subscription services are reflective of a broader shift we’ve been seeing across the industry as sales decline,” says Jessica Caldwell with Edmunds. Automakers “appear to be more open to exploring new business models.” It’s an attempt to make their brands stand out and keep more customers while also grabbing market share from the competition, she says. npr.org

We Need To Focus More On Networks And Less On The Nodes.

Networks Not Just Nodes Drive Innovation

Ideas alone don’t change the world. A number of later studies, ranging from Broadway plays to the design firm IDEO to currency traders found much the same thing. Great innovators are able to see things others can’t because they function as knowledge brokers. They are able to build networks that connect them to knowledge they don’t have and, in the end, that’s what seems to make all the difference. inc.com

5 Beautiful Tiny Houses That’ll Make You Want to Downsize Immediately.

Emerging Trend of Tiny Homes

A little more than a decade ago, the idea of building quality homes with less square footage but with truly usable spaces began to take hold, according to the AARP. Sometimes called the “Not So Big House” approach, the tiny house movement has gained attention and popularity due to a variety of factors, including the state of the economy, the struggling housing market, and the growing ethic of reducing and reusing. Typically measuring 100 to 400 square feet — but sometimes as small as 80 square feet or as large as 700 square feet — these micro houses aim to fill all the basic amenities that an average-size house does, all while using less space to do so. fristforwomen.com

Who are U.S. angel investors?

Percentage of Women in Angel Investing

Study shows 78% male; 87% white; 17% in California.  The study found that 77.9 percent of angels in the U.S. are male, while 22.1 percent are female. Of newer angel investors — those who started in 2014 or later — 30 percent are women. “Women are considerably more prevalent in angel investing compared to the venture capital community, where the proportion of female partners in US venture capital firms is only about 5-8%, and the number of women investors has actually declined from 9% in 2006 and 10% in 1999,” the report noted. Geek Wire.

This New Battery Material Uses Graphene to Charge 5 Times Faster.

New Material To Recharge Batteries

The Samsung Advanced Institute of Technology (SAIT) has developed new battery material, made from a “graphene ball,” which could potentially deliver charging speeds five times faster than today’s lithium-ion batteries. Samsung announced the new material in a press release this past Wednesday, November 28.But just how fast is this new material? Well, in theory, this graphene ball material only needs about 12 minutes to achieve a hundred percent charge.  sciencealert.com

What Are The Industries Of The Future And How Can We Prepare?

Preparing for Growth Industries of the Future

Most people have heard the statistic that 65% of jobs that today’s students will hold haven’t even been created yet. Those numbers have been around for years, but the predictions are already beginning to come true.  Here are his predictions for five industries of the future: Robotics; Advanced Life Sciences; Codification of Markets (Bitcoin and blockchain); Cybersecurity and Big Data. inc.com

HeartFlow is the newest unicorn after a new $150 million financing round.

The Promise of New Unicorn, HeartFlow

The medical technology company HeartFlow is now valued at over $1 billion, the latest company to hit the category threshold for the most highly valued startups. HeartFlow is expected to collect $150 million in a new fundraising round, according to a new regulatory filing in Delaware uncovered by PitchBook. At a price of about $25.33 per share, HeartFlow will have a valuation of $1.4 billion. HeartFlow, founded in 2010, sells a product to doctors to detect coronary artery disease. recode.net

Steps:

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction.

Millennials and Boomers Shape the Economy

If you review the 2009 to 2014 timeframe, the financial experts suggest a simple investment strategy. Find the stocks that performed horribly, lagging far behind the market leaders.

Stock Market Performance
“You want to buy stocks of the companies where that extra income is going to be spent. That could make technology, for one, a big beneficiary, as well as healthcare and entertainment.”

An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.

Part Three in a 3-Part Series.

Part One: Tomorrow

Part Two: What Lies Ahead?

Please remember.  Check in with your financial planner as the following trends and opinions change and may have before you read this.

Rules of Thumb

Is there a rule of thumb you can count on going forward?

You know like “buy low, sell high.”

As they say in my family, it’s all relative.

 

If stocks earn 4% a year, but cash in the bank earns just 1%, stocks still win by a long shot.

  • So Baby Boomers will have to stay in the stock market for a portion of their portfolio.
  • For Millennials who invest on a regular basis in an IRA or 401(k) plan, and who won’t need to tap into their funds for two decades or longer, just buy and hold.
  • Unlike the Baby Boomers who fear a significant loss over the next five years, don’t fret about bad financial news.

In fact, root for falling stocks, because you’ll be getting more shares for your money.

If you review the 2009 to 2014 timeframe, the financial experts suggest a simple investment strategy.

Find the stocks that performed horribly, lagging far behind the market leaders.

Tracking Winners and Losers

While the market leaders run out of steam, the laggards will probably …

beat U.S. returns over the next five years by buying low to  eventually sell high. But psychologically, it’s hard to buy losers.

 

Losers like:

  • Foreign stocks and bonds.
  • Emerging-market stock funds .

They’ve lost 5.8% a year.

“We’re expecting to raise our positions there in the back half of 2016.”

Understand the risks, though.

In a world where a stronger dollar and weaker currencies depress the returns for American investors in foreign markets it may be time to nibble here and there.

Bears vs. the Bulls

“It will never be obvious when the markets, or their currencies, have hit bottom. next five years.” 

  • In a reversal, financial advisors and economists expect China’s share of global growth to fall to 21%.
  • But, they expect emerging economies’ share to climb to 34%.
  • And, previously out of favor European and Japanese stocks will continue to benefit from their central bank policies aimed at keeping interest rates at rock bottom to support growth.

But there’s no getting around the fact that …

“the world will face a financial crisis rooted in mammoth debt levels.”

  • In 2016 a pivot in pay increases will be welcome news in the U.S. households.
  • But, maybe not for stockholders as promotions and bonuses usually come at the expense of corporate profit margins.

And, the grass is greener.

Getting Ready for Musical Chairs

The percentage of talented employees voluntarily quitting their jobs for better opportunities is the highest since early in the Great Recession.

Typically though …

“It takes a long time for people to realize they’re in a better bargaining position.”

That can change quickly thanks to the Internet and social media.

Once trading places begins, Millennials and savvy Gen Xs can take advantage of a powerful means to discover which companies are good ones to work for and which to avoid.

Consumer Behavior Influencing Stock Performance

It won’t take long for workers who feel under appreciated to make the jump.

And, that’s great, right?

“In a perfect world, rising wages would spark a ‘virtuous circle’ where workers would boost spending, driving up demand for goods and services. That would lift business sales and earnings, in turn allowing companies to continue raising wages.”

 

A virtuous circle takes time to develop in a less than perfect world like the one you and I live in.

But, here’s another simple rule of thumb.

Changing Tech Leaders
  • Where the real economy may influence the stock market.
  • Where consumer spending by Millennials and Baby Boomers may figure into gains in your portfolio.

As one expert put it.

“You want to buy stocks of the companies where that extra income is going to be spent. That could make technology, for one, a big beneficiary, as well as healthcare and entertainment.”

 

Steps:

(6) Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.

(7) Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.

(17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year time frames.  Will we fall into another recession?  Absolutely.  Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.

What Lies Ahead?

So, the forecast remains turbulent with plenty of volatility

Market Cycles
Harry Dent years before even predicted the “Mother of all Depressions” lasting well into the decade beginning in 2010 and lasting until 2020.

An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.

Part Two in a 3-Part Series.

Part One: Tomorrow

Please remember.  Check in with your financial planner as the following trends and opinions change and may have before you read this.

What about the 25 year old Millennials?

Many, if not most of the college educated are burdened by student loans and high rents that eat up a huge share of income.

Good news for landlords, probably not so much for the starter home demand, yet.

But, for those who successfully found good employment with a fresh start on a career path, even if their pay rises they’re reluctant to  spend — or take a chance on a new job — so, don’t count on a broad positive impact on the economy just yet.

Their risk aversion may be one of the biggest overhangs from the Great Recession.

Look, they witnessed the financial woes their parents or friends endured after the 2008 crash.

While the demographic trends probably aren’t as negative for growth, you should account for them and prepare to adjust in any long-term scenarios you construct.

Obviously they’re the early adopters for companies including Airbnb and Uber..

And as another expert cautioned …

It’s impossible to know in advance how many business ideas will spring up to disrupt or even replace existing industries.

The period after the 2008 financial crash turned out to be pretty decent for the U.S. economy.

Many economists and financial news channel pundits peddled dire forecasts in 2009 and 2010.

Harry Dent years before even predicted the “Mother of all Depressions” lasting well into the decade beginning in 2010 and lasting until 2020.

Instead, by the end of 2015 …

  • The official unemployment rate is back to 5%. 
  • Corporate earnings reached record highs. 
  • And a venture capital boom has funded thousands of promising start-up companies.

But, what lies ahead?

Have we celebrated too soon?

  • The contrarian message appears more reasonable.
  • The economy and markets face challenges that could make the next five years very different.

Like what?

  • Don’t expect more than “low single digit returns on stocks and bonds.”
  • The annualized investment returns will be lousy as the January 2016 steep plunge foreshadowed.
  • Were talking 4% to 4.5% roughly half of what wealth managers plan for their clients.

And, that’s through the end of the decade

So, the forecast remains turbulent with plenty of volatility.

News at 11.

Will we ever return to tried and true savings vehicles for the Baby Boomers hitting retirements like their parents swore by?

One economist says don’t hold your breath,

“As for bonds, with yields so low it’s mathematically impossible for fixed-income securities to earn high returns.” 

How is that possible?

Five years ago a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was paying 3.5% in annual interest. 

Now, new notes pay 2.11%. The drop in yields means older, higher-yielding bonds have risen in value, boosting their “total return” — interest plus principal change.

Yeah, so?

But with the Federal Reserve’s decision in December to begin raising short-term interest rates from near zero, it becomes more difficult to imagine longer-term rates declining significantly, barring a new recession or global shock. 

Here’s what hurts my brain when wrapping my head around bonds.

  • If longer-term rates stay where they are, all you earn is the interest. 
  • And if market rates rise, older bonds will fall in value, offsetting some or all of your interest earnings.

Steps:

(6) Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.

(7) Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.

(17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year time frames.  Will we fall into another recession?  Absolutely.  Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.

Tomorrow

“It’s impossible to know in advance how many business ideas will spring up to disrupt or even replace existing industries.”

Nest Egg
Seared into their brains is a haunting future in which they outlive their next egg, not having saved enough money for retirement.

 

An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.

Part One in a 3-Part Series.

Please remember.  Check in with your financial planner as the following trends and opinions change and may have before you read this.

Aging Baby Boomers

Sometime in 2015 Millennials overtook Baby Boomers as the nation’s largest living generation.

Most everyone older and younger than the Baby Boomer generation grew tired of living in its shadow.

Thanks, Baby Boomers

And hearing about its impact on the economy, real estate, and well, you name it.

The oldest Millennial was born in 1981 and the youngest  in 1997

So doing the math for you, it works out like this.

Millennials (ages 18 to 34 in 2015)  numbered 75.3 million while the Boomers (ages 51 to 69 in 2015) dropped slightly from the decades long, popular estimate of 75 million to 74.9 million.

One estimate projected  75.4 million Boomers lived in 2014.

The bottom line?

Ain’t No Spring Chickens

They aren’t babies any longer.

Fewer and fewer of them will be around each advancing year.

In between, as you recall, lies the Gen X population (ages 35 to 50 in 2015.)

Sandwiched Gen-X

They get no respect.

  • And they’re already sick and tired reading or hearing about the older and younger generations.
  • But, they’ll have to get used to it since the Millennial population is projected to peak in 2036 at 81.1 million when the Millennials reach 56 years of age
  • By 2050 there will still be a projected 79.2 million Millennials.

Generation X became the “middle child” of generations.

Their ages spread out over 16 years compared to the 17 years of the Millennials

Knight Rider Kids

Though the oldest Gen Xer is now 50, they shouldn’t give up.

They can still become number two, if they try harder, or at least eat healthier and workout more often.

Actually, they can just wait until 2028 to outnumber the Boomers.

There will be 64.6 million Gen Xers and 63.7 million Boomers.

Gen X population will peak at 65.8 million in 2018.

Now back, to Baby Boomers.

They were all that.

The largest generation since the 1950s and 1960s having peaked at 78.8 million in 1999.

The Lone Ranger on Black and White TV

By mid-century, the Boomer population will dwindle to 16.6 million.

Talk about a boom, then a bust!

Let’s examine how the two huge generations will impact the rest of us.

Aging Boomers and coming-of-age Millennials will accelerate changes in the economy.

No question.

Housing Regrets

But, not everything is rosy or the same for both generations.

  • Both Baby Boomers and Millennials  will increasingly feel squeezed financially.
  • Roughly 150 million Americans feel squeezed, so they’re not alone.
  • But, chances are they both account for most of the 150 million citizens.

Just compare the median ages of both generations as of 2015.

Baby Boomers, age 60.

Millennials, age 25.

The 25-year-old Millennials, having lived through the Great Recession, find themselves either unable or unwilling to spend.

While the 60-year-old Boomers (parents or grandparents of Millennials) have been playing savings catch-up.

Seared into their brains is a haunting future in which they outlive their next egg, not having saved enough money for retirement.

Nest Egg

Which may last as long as 35 more years.

Or, as one financial expert tells them,

“You’re just going to have to live with lower rates of return.”

Steps:

(6) Anticipate changing circumstances and economic cycles.

(7) Persist and pivot to navigate external threats and opportunities.

(17) Sketch out your trajectory in 5-year time frames.  Will we fall into another recession?  Absolutely.  Will you be ready this time with future-proofed strategies?

(19) Anticipate the growing shifts in life and business. Nobody wants to swim upstream if the current is moving everything in the opposite direction. Clue your fans in.